Another anniversary of 9/11 passes and we are fed for a couple of weeks pictures and clips of the planes and the collapsing twin towers in Manhattan. Those of us who follow another part of the world are reminded that this means that another anniversary is also upon us.
It was on September 23, 2001 that a number of regime critics were imprisoned in Eritrea, something that happened in total media shadow. The world press still had its eyes on the United States, as well as Afghanistan, which was about to be invaded by the superpower.
It is not far-fetched to think that the regime in Asmara was taking advantage at that time. Because it had already been months since the triggering event: an open letter to Eritrean President Isaias Afewerki, signed by 15 of his closest and most loyal politicians, accusing him of abuse of power and lack of respect for the constitution.
The independent magazine Setit published the letter on 5 May 2001 and also published follow-up articles in the future. The Swedish-Eritrean journalist Dawit Isaak, who co-founded the magazine and was a co-owner, worked there. He ended up in the firing line as a messenger and was drawn into the case when the group "G15" was imprisoned.
Dawit is today considered to be the journalist in the world who has been imprisoned the longest because of his professional practice. If he is alive.
The question must be asked, because the signs of life have been few over the years. Five years ago, two UN reporters said that, according to a "credible source", he was alive in 2020 and was then in the notorious Eiraeiro prison. One of them, Irish Mary Lawlor, then considered that it was an absolute minimum requirement that Eritrea provide evidence of his well-being.
No such evidence ever came from Asmara, not even when Sweden's Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard paid a quick visit to the Eritrean capital last year. She said after the trip that an "assessment" showed that he was still alive.
We do not know what was said behind closed doors to Sweden's delegation, but the words do not carry much weight in the context. Certainly Asmara would be relieved of a headache if they confirm his passing. But the uncertainty creates a diplomatic limbo that can be exploited by the regime. It is not in their interest to say such a card, no matter how ruthless it is to family and friends who are forced into eternal uncertainty.
After all, the Swedish foreign minister would not have made the trip to Eritrea if it were not for the hope that Dawit is still alive, even though the visit was officially about a number of different topics. Remember that it took ten years before the Soviet Union recognized that Raoul Wallenberg had died in captivity.
Stenergard went to Asmara at very short notice, after a number of people imprisoned on political and religious grounds had been released in Eritrea. Unfortunately, this window has not remained open. Thousands of people are still believed to be detained without trial in the country.
The grim climate for regime critics seems to prevail as long as Isaias Afewerki remains as president. He is aging like everyone else and is today 80 years old, but internally he still appears to have a strong position even though discontent with the regime is believed to be widespread.
Outside the country's borders, more has happened in recent years. Right now there is what must be described as political chaos in the Horn of Africa. The civil wars in Sudan, Ethiopia and Somalia draw in a variety of actors not only from Africa but also from the Middle East.
And we all know how shaky things are in the Middle East. The other week, Houthi rebels in Yemen took control of the important port city of Mokka on the Red Sea coast, across the water from Eritrea's strategically important port city of Assab.
Just days later, US President Donald Trump chose not to renew the sanctions package against Eritrea initiated by the Biden administration and which Trump himself extended as recently as last year. The reason for the dropped sanctions was that the US wants to protect its regional interests.
These sanctions had been imposed following Eritrea's involvement in the war in Ethiopia's Tigray province. A war that is about to break out again, now with Eritrea and Ethiopia on different sides.
The US currently nurtures relations with both parties. Egypt can be assumed to be on Eritrea's side in the event of a major war. Nothing is written in stone and it is difficult to predict how strong Eritrea's regime will be in such a confrontation. But in the absence of political development inside Eritrea, only an external shock like a war can change the situation in Asmara and bring light into the dungeons of Eiraeiro.
