Conciliatory end to the week on the stock market. With the tailwind from Wall Street, investors in this country have gained a little more courage and bought stocks. The leading German index closed at 25,568 points, 0.8 percent higher. Yesterday it had lost 0.8 percent to 25,361 points. Despite today's gains, the leading German index recorded a sharp weekly loss of around 1.8 percent.
Record high company bankruptcies in the first half of the year did not have any additional negative impact on the mood. In the morning, the Federal Statistical Office reported a 6.7 percent increase in insolvencies compared to the previous year to over 12,800 reports from the local courts - after all, the highest number since 2013.
Meanwhile, pressure from the oil market on consumer prices remains high and is likely to continue to determine the direction of the capital markets. Profit-taking pushed prices for North Sea Brent oil down by around 2.5 percent today to a recent level of $105 per barrel. During the night, prices rose to up to $110 per barrel.
According to economists, what is fatal is that high oil prices are constantly increasing inflation - to which the central banks have to react. Just yesterday the ECB raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.5 percent. JPMorgan analysts now expect eight of the nine central banks in developed countries to raise interest rates by the end of the year.
Pressure is also coming from the bond market due to rising bond yields: the yield on ten-year US government bonds rose to its highest level in three years. Yields on 30-year bonds have now climbed to a 19-year high of 5.38 percent. At midday local time, the US bond markets were somewhat recovered.
In Germany, the yield on ten-year bonds is also at a multi-year high of 3.5 percent. Yields are not only rising because of latent fears of inflation and the threat of interest rate hikes by central banks - increasing national debt is also becoming more and more noticeable. Investors are demanding a higher risk premium from states in view of increasingly strained public budgets.
As expected, inflation in the USA did not change at a high level in August. Year-on-year, consumer prices rose by 3.4 percent. Economists on average had expected this. Core inflation, which excludes volatile prices for energy and food, was - as reported today - also at 2.4 percent, as expected.
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is aiming for an inflation rate of two percent in the medium term. The Fed, which will decide on the key interest rate next Wednesday, should ensure full employment and stable prices. It recently left the key interest rate in the range of 3.50 to 3.75 percent. However, central bank chief Kevin Warsh has indicated a possible need for action if inflation remains high.
According to the price data for August, prices on the New York Stock Exchange are going up. All major indices are in the black. The leading index Dow Jones is currently gaining one percent. Investors are apparently counting on the central bank to keep its key interest rate stable for the time being - after the majority had previously assumed an interest rate increase of 25 basis points.
"All data for the Fed's upcoming interest rate decision is now on the table. The still moderate monthly increase in the core rate suggests we should wait and see, other developments point to continued increased inflation risks. Some FOMC members will probably adjust their positioning in the next few days. The die for or against an interest rate increase has not yet been cast," commented Bastian Hepperle from Bethmann Hal.
"If the Fed remained silent at next week's meeting, it would probably have required better - i.e. lower - inflation data, explained Christoph Balz from Commerzbank.
