
AI-generated summary
The black-red coalition of CDU/CSU and SPD has governed Germany since 2021 and is faced with the task of reforming the social security financing system in view of demographic change. Nursing care insurance is showing a growing deficit due to an aging population and fewer contributors. Pension policy has been controversial for years, particularly with regard to the retirement age and financing. Tax policy is caught between relief and financing of social services.
The black-red coalition is in the middle of the debate about its planned reforms. On Wednesday, for example, Federal Health Minister Carsten Linnemann (CDU) wants to bring a bill on nursing reform to the cabinet. Just one of many construction sites.
The care system in Germany is under immense pressure. An increasingly older population requiring more care is compared to fewer and fewer young people who pay into long-term care insurance. The statutory health insurance funds are expecting a deficit of 4.4 billion euros this year - and even 7.5 billion in 2027.
Health Minister under time pressure: The nursing care reform
In order to avert financial collapse, the new Federal Health Minister Linnemann wants to introduce a law that is intended to stabilize care finances. According to his idea, nursing bikes should in future be awarded according to stricter criteria. In addition, the surcharges for home costs should only be paid later than before. According to Linnemann's ideas, a fundamental structural reform for the care system should only come later. A commission of experts should develop this.
The SPD does not want to take part in the order - first cutting, then reforming. She is already calling for a mechanism that caps care costs above a certain amount. And the Social Democrats insist that private nursing care insurance companies also contribute to the costs of statutory insurance.
Despite the disagreement: SPD health politician Christos Pantazis assumes in the joint morning magazine of ARD and ZDF that the Union and the Social Democrats will come to an agreement in time: "We are already arguing in the form of a compromise," said Pantazis.
The ongoing black-red issue: pension reform
The government has been involved in pension reform - and the discussion about it - since day one. A year ago, the first pension package almost failed in the Bundestag. Spicy: At that time it was not a dispute between the Union and the SPD, but between the Union leadership and young Union MPs, the so-called pension rebels, which almost caused the vote in the Bundestag to fail in the last few meters.
A lot has happened since then: The government set up an independent pension commission, which was able to agree on 33 proposals for fundamental pension reform. According to Federal Labor Minister Bärbel Bas (SPD), "a total work of art" - which, as Friedrich Merz wished, should also be adopted in its entirety. But one point in the package in particular is causing discussion: the abolition of the pension without deductions after 45 years of contributions - colloquially: "pension at 63".
Headwind from Prime Ministers
For many in the Union, it is above all an expensive gift for high-earning skilled workers who have not worked hard physically - and whose labor is lost to the economy. Since the most recent state elections, it has been clear: many voters find abolishing the pension at 63 disrespectful.
Several prime ministers, including Saxony's Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer from the CDU and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania's SPD Prime Minister Manuela Schwesig, want to remove this proposal from the pension package. A solution to the dispute is not yet in sight.
But at least: Other ideas about pensions are relatively uncontroversial. For example, there should be a capital pension for everyone, which is invested in the stock market and should thus generate returns. In addition, the early start pension has already been introduced into the Bundestag: With this, the state pays ten euros a month into the pension provision for all children between the ages of six and 18.
Relief for everyone? The tax reform
Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil (SPD) wants to relieve households with low and middle incomes of several hundred euros per year. For this purpose, among other things, the basic allowance, the employee allowance and the child allowance should be increased. On the revenue side, Klingbeil plans, among other things, to expand the tax on the rich, increase the tobacco tax and introduce a sugar tax.
The federal government has already introduced the bill for this - but there is now resistance in the Bundestag. Union politicians criticize both sides of the reform. On the one hand, they think the relief is too small. On the other hand, they are against new taxes and tax increases if they are only intended to plug budget holes. Another major point of contention: the cabinet draft does not plan to compensate for the cold progression.
This is the situation where some people have less money after a salary increase than before - because he or she has to pay more taxes than before due to the progressive tax rate. In the past, this effect was regularly offset by finance ministers. The financial policy spokesman for the CDU/CSU parliamentary group, Fritz Güntzler, cannot understand why that is not the case this time. He calls for a course correction and announces that he will “put everything to the test again.”
This is one of the reasons why it is expected that changes to the package will be negotiated in the Bundestag and Bundesrat.
And otherwise? The sideshows
The coalition members also sometimes have tough discussions in secondary areas: Federal Family Minister Karin Prien (CDU), for example, has announced that she wants to reduce parental allowance. Part of the pension compromise was also to abolish mini-jobs in their current form and make them subject to contributions. And from Federal Housing Minister Verena Hubertz (SPD) comes the push to cut housing benefit.
In the discussions about all of these reforms, it is striking that the lines of conflict run not only between the Union and the SPD - but also between the CDU and CSU or between the federal government and the states. And: Agreement on a reform is often used as a bargaining chip for discussion on the next reform. In this respect, the individual reforms can hardly be separated from one another. In the end, the overall picture will be the deciding factor.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
The coalition will agree on a compromise on care reform that initially provides for financial stabilization and postpones structural changes.
Likely · Within weeks
The dispute over the abolition of the 'pension at 63' continues in the pension package, although abolition is unlikely due to resistance from the states.
Possible · Within months
The tax reform will be amended through the parliamentary process, with planned tax increases likely to be weakened or postponed.
Likely · Within months

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