Every year, when the Federal Criminal Police Office publishes the police crime statistics, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) — a party that is, in part, right-wing extremist — pays particularly close attention. They are looking for crimes committed by refugees, migrants and foreigners living in Germany. But studies by media scholars show that 95% of the AfD's press releases focus on non-German suspects, while crimes involving German suspects are almost completely ignored.
However, the common narrative of the AfD — that non-Germans are inherently much more violent — is simply not true.
In a new research paper, Susann Prätor, a sociologist, criminologist and professor at the Lower Saxony Police Academy, has taken a very close look at crime data in Germany, together with her colleagues from the University of Zurich and the Lower Saxony Criminological Research Institute. She looked not only at officially reported crime — that is, all offenses that appeared in police crime statistics — but also at unreported crime: these are all offenses that are not reported or detected, and therefore do not appear in any official statistics but are identified through representative surveys.
Prätor told DW: "Yes, according to police crime statistics, people who do not have German citizenship commit crimes more frequently than German citizens. However, studies into unreported cases show that non-German nationals are twice as likely to be reported. Differences between the two groups are also evident in crimes that go unreported, but they are significantly less pronounced."
German offenders are reported to the police much less frequently
Crimes committed by foreign nationals are therefore twice as likely to appear in police crime statistics as crimes committed by Germans.
These statistics record all reported cases and do not specify whether the allegations prove to be true.
When the statistics are adjusted for the bias in the reporting of crimes, foreigners are no longer 2.6 times more likely to commit crimes than Germans, but only 1.7 times more likely. This figure is also consistent with the results of studies on unreported juvenile violent crime. According to these studies, foreign youths are about 1.6 times as likely to commit violent crimes as German youths.
Other factors affecting crime include age and gender. Young men make up a larger proportion of the foreign-born population, and young men are the group most prone to criminal behavior across all societies.
According to Prätor, "Categories such as being young, male, poorly educated and having a history of violence are factors that increase the likelihood of violent behavior. A certain concept of masculinity also plays a role, wherever that may come from. But we do not see culture as a factor, contrary to the prejudice that masculinity and violence play a greater role in other cultures."
Prätor points to a survey on attitudes toward violence. According to the survey, 5% of German youths view violence positively. Among those without a German passport, the figure is 10%.
The criminologist has identified a crucial factor: "Family upbringing plays an important role in shaping attitudes toward violence, because these attitudes are formed in the home. If I experience violence in my own home, I will have a different relationship to violence than if I hadn't experienced it," said Prätor.
Germany is, however, on the right track, says Prätor, even if it doesn't always feel that way. "Fifty or sixty years ago, parental violence was much more common in child-rearing than it is today. Acts of violence committed by young people are also far less frequent than they were in the 1990s or the early 2000s."
Susann Prätor emphasizes that it is important to bring objectivity to the debate. A good illustration of this is a look at police records of serious violent crimes — such as aggravated assault, manslaughter, or murder. "Of every 100 German citizens, 0.2% commit violent crimes; among non-German nationals, the figure is 0.6%."
However, Prätor points out, "More than 99% of the people living here in Germany — whether of German or non-German origin — the overwhelming majority in this country do not commit any serious violent crimes at all."
Germany must do more to prevent crime
Prätor also trains prospective police officers. She wants to send the message to policymakers that they should place greater emphasis on the positive aspects of migration. She argues that the debate on immigration is far too negative, largely due to an overly narrow focus on police crime statistics. The vast majority of non-Germans integrate exceptionally well, she says.
She wants the government to invest more money in prevention: "By starting as early as possible with children and adolescents: strengthening social skills as early as preschool, building on that in school and responding when incidents of violence do occur. It's also important to invest in infrastructure and recreational activities in certain regions. After all, a key factor in youth violence — regardless of background — is that young people lack a meaningful daily structure."
