AI-generated summary
The Brazilian financial market reacted positively to the result of the first round of the 2026 elections, with the dollar falling and the Ibovespa rising strongly on Monday, reflecting expectations of a reduction in the risk premium and the possibility of a fiscal adjustment agenda in the event of a change of government.
The Brazilian financial market had a day of adjustment this Tuesday (6), after the euphoria the day before. The dollar fell to around R$4.97, the lowest level in almost five months, while the Ibovespa fell just over 0.5%, but remained above 200 thousand points.
Abroad, the dollar also lost strength, while the New York stock exchanges advanced and oil closed practically stable.
Main numbers
Cash dollar: R$4.975 (-0.55%);
Dollar in the year: drop of 9.37%;
Ibovespa: 205,835.29 points (-0.52%);
Ibovespa in October: increase of 10.46%
Ibovespa in the year: increase of 27.75%
Brent oil: US$100.58 (+0.26%);
WTI Oil: US$89.44 (+0.01%).
Exchange rate
The commercial dollar ended the session with a drop of 0.55%, at R$4.975. This is the lowest closing price since May 12, when the day ended at R$4.895.
The currency fell further in the morning. The minimum was R$4.945, at 10:11 am, which represented a drop of 1.14% at the time.
With this Tuesday's result, the dollar accumulates a drop of 9.37% in 2026. In the last two trading sessions, the drop reaches 4.62%, considering the drop of 4.12% recorded on Monday.
The real's reaction continues to be related to the result of the first round. Investors assess that a possible change of government could reduce the risk premium of Brazilian assets and open space for a fiscal adjustment agenda.
The movement was also favored by the external environment. The dollar retreated against other currencies from emerging countries, such as the Mexican peso, the South African rand and the Chilean peso.
Abroad, the DXY index, which measures the strength of the American currency against a basket of six currencies, fell 0.31%, to 101,848 points, in the late afternoon.
Ibovespa makes adjustment
After soaring 7.85% on Monday and reaching historic records, the Ibovespa closed this Tuesday down 0.52%, at 205,835.29 points.
The index fluctuated between 204,725.23 points, at its minimum, and 209,522.60 points, at its maximum. The financial volume of the auction totaled R$58.06 billion.
Despite the drop, the indicator remained above 200 thousand points. In October, after four trading sessions, the Ibovespa accumulated an increase of 10.46%. For the year, the increase reached 27.75%.
The drop was interpreted as a profit-taking movement after the rise caused by the electoral result. On Monday, the index had recorded the biggest daily appreciation in years and renewed historic highs.
Oil rises little
Oil closed Tuesday practically stable, with investors balancing geopolitical concerns in the Middle East and signs of greater supply of the commodity.
The Brent barrel, a reference for international negotiations, rose 0.26% and ended the session at US$100.58.
The WTI barrel, from Texas, advanced 0.01%, to US$ 89.44.
The market followed the tensions involving the Houthis, in Yemen, and Saudi Arabia, in addition to the conditions for oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz.
At the same time, signs of supply resilience limited the increase. Saudi Arabia's energy minister reported that the East-West Pipeline transported 5.8 million barrels despite hostilities in the region.
The United States Department of Energy also raised its projections for the price of Brent, estimating US$96 per barrel in 2026 and US$84 in 2027.
*with information from Reuters.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
The dollar could continue on a downward trajectory if expectations of fiscal adjustment are confirmed after the second round of elections.
Possible · Within weeks
Oil prices could face downward pressure if global supply remains resilient despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Possible · Within weeks
Grupo Pão de Açúcar (GPA) had its extrajudicial recovery plan judicially approved, which reorganizes R$4.568 billion in debts, with creditors representing 57.49% of the total, above the legal minimum required.

Vale must allocate R$21.19 million to ANM after omitting a 2020 report that indicated safety risks in a waste pile at the Fábrica Nova Complex, in Minas Gerais. The agreement provides for the modernization of supervision and permanent monitoring.
The Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services (Mdic) revised downwards the forecast for the Brazilian trade surplus in 2026, from US$90 billion to US$84.4 billion, due to the drop in oil prices. Despite the cut, the result still represents an increase of 24% compared to 2025 and would be the second highest in the historical series, behind only 2023. In September, the country recorded a surplus of US$7.74 billion, more than double the same month last year.

The Spanish company Aena signed the purchase and sale contract for the Tom Jobim international airport (Galeão) in Rio de Janeiro and will manage it until 2039, after winning an auction with a bid of R$2.9 billion in March. Management will focus on operational efficiency, passenger experience, cargo transportation and value creation for the state.
The Brazilian trade balance had a surplus of US$7.74 billion in September, more than double the same month in 2025, driven by 12.9% growth in exports, led by crude oil, copper ore, soybean meal and fuels. The trade flow reached US$61.09 billion, the highest ever recorded for September in the historical series.
The Central Bank of Brazil will begin publishing monthly indicators on salary adjustments negotiated in collective agreements, using data from the Ministry of Labor to monitor the labor market and inflationary dynamics.