2026 trade surplus forecast drops to US$84.4 billion

The drop in oil price projections made the government reduce the forecast for the Brazilian trade balance surplus in 2026, from US$90 billion to US$84.4 billion.

Despite the cut, the result projected by the Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services (Mdic) still represents an increase of 24% in relation to the surplus recorded in 2025.

In September, the country recorded a positive balance of US$7.74 billion, more than double the result obtained in the same month last year.

New projection

The revision of the estimate for 2026 is mainly related to the reduction in oil prices. The barrel reached US$138 in April, after the United States entered the war with Iran, but subsequently fell.

Even with the rise in oil prices in recent weeks, a barrel of Brent, a reference for international negotiations, is around US$100.

The drop affects both Brazilian exports and imports, as the country sells crude oil abroad and also buys derivatives.

The new MDIC forecast considers:

Exports: US$382.5 billion, against a previous projection of US$394.4 billion;

Imports: US$298.1 billion, against US$304.4 billion;

Trade surplus: US$84.4 billion, against US$90 billion.

With the review, the estimate for foreign sales fell by US$ 11.9 billion, while the forecast for purchases decreased by US$ 6.3 billion.

Even so, exports projected for 2026 represent growth of 9.8% over 2025, while imports are expected to increase 6.4%.

Second largest balance

If the projection is confirmed, the 2026 surplus will be the second largest in the historical series, behind only the result recorded in 2023, of US$98.9 billion.

In 2025, Brazil ended the year with a positive balance of US$68.1 billion.

This is the second revision of the estimate made by the Mdic in 2026. The initial forecast was for a surplus of US$72.1 billion, later raised to US$90 billion in July.

To achieve the new projected result, Brazil will need to accumulate a surplus of approximately US$22 billion between October and December. The value is close to that recorded in the last quarter of 2025, when the positive balance was US$21.8 billion.

According to Herlon Brandão, director of the Department of Statistics and Foreign Trade Studies at MDIC, the estimate is close to the performance observed until September.

"We are forecasting three months ahead. So, it is natural that these numbers get closer and we already have a very consolidated scenario for what will be the end of the year", stated Brandão.

Balance grows in September

The Brazilian trade balance recorded a surplus of US$7.74 billion in September, an increase of 146.4% compared to the US$3.14 billion recorded in the same month of 2025.

It was the highest monthly balance since June, when the positive result reached US$9 billion.

Last month, exports totaled US$34.42 billion, an increase of 12.9% in the annual comparison. Imports totaled US$26.68 billion, a drop of 2.4%.

Oil boosts sales

Export growth in September was mainly influenced by the rise in prices of products sold abroad.

On average, the prices of exported goods increased by 9.9%, while the volume shipped grew by 2.3%.

September had 21 working days, one less than in the same month of 2025. Considering the daily average, exports grew by 18.3%.

Crude oil was one of the main factors responsible for the performance of foreign sales in the month. Product exports totaled US$6.49 billion, an increase of 77.3% compared to September last year.