On a day of nervousness in the domestic and foreign markets, the dollar approached R$5.20, and closed at its highest level since the end of August. The stock market fell almost 1% and ended the day below 184 thousand points.
The movement occurred on a day of greater risk aversion in international markets, with rising interest rates on United States Treasury bonds and an increase in oil prices amid uncertainty over negotiations between the United States and Iran. In Brazil, investors also followed the Central Bank's new economic projections and the fiscal scenario.
Main numbers
Cash dollar: R$5.1931 (+0.47%);
Ibovespa: 183,965.91 points (-0.99%);
Dollar in the month: increase of 0.26%;
Dollar in the year: drop of 5.39%;
Brent oil: US$ 106.60 (+3.41%);
WTI oil: US$ 94.61 (+2.65%).
Dollar advances
The commercial dollar ended this Thursday (24) sold at R$5.193, up 0.47%. The price started the day at R$5.16 and reached R$5.202 at the day's high, around 3pm.
As a result, the dollar began to accumulate an increase of 0.26% in September, although it still registered a drop of 5.39% in the year.
The appreciation occurred in line with the behavior of the US currency abroad. The DXY index, which measures the dollar against a basket of six currencies, rose 0.14%, to 101,270 points, around 5 pm.
The rise gained strength throughout the morning, following the rise in US Treasury bond yields. The movement came amid concerns about American inflation and the prospect of maintaining high interest rates by the Federal Reserve.
The ten-year Treasury (American public bond) reached 5.2209% in the late afternoon, against 5.114% in the previous session. The paper is yielding above 5% per year for the first time since 2007.
Higher rates for US government bonds, considered the safest investments in the world, encourage capital flight from emerging countries, such as Brazil.
BC's activities
The Central Bank also acted in the foreign exchange market this Thursday. The monetary authority sold US$1 billion in two simultaneous line auctions.
In this type of operation, the BC sells dollars with a commitment to repurchase the money within a few months. The mechanism increases the supply of foreign currency and market liquidity.
The day before, the BC had informed that Brazilian exchange flow was negative at US$7.078 billion in September until the 18th.
Earlier, the Central Bank also released new economic projections. The GDP growth estimate in 2026 was reduced from 2% to 1.8%. For 2027, the forecast is for growth of 1.4%.
Stock market retreats
The Ibovespa ended the day at 183,965.91 points, a drop of 0.99%. The index reached a maximum of 186,211.43 points and reached a minimum of 183,834.97 points.
The movement followed the worsening of the international environment for assets considered more risky, especially in emerging markets.
Rising US bond yields reduced demand for risky assets throughout the session. At the same time, the rise in oil prices has heightened concerns about inflation.
The domestic scenario also entered investors' radar after the government released new projections for public accounts. The Ministries of Finance and Planning reduced the need to contain expenses from R$17.9 billion to R$16.1 billion, but raised the effective deficit forecast for 2026 to R$80.9 billion.
The result also occurred while the market was following the release of new electoral polls.
Oil accelerates
Oil ended the day on a strong rise, amid uncertainty about negotiations between the United States and Iran and the possibility of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's main routes for transporting oil.
A reference for international negotiations, the Brent barrel rose 3.41%, to US$ 106.60 per barrel. The product accumulates an increase of close to 4% in the week and more than 18% in the month.
A barrel of WTI type, from Texas, a reference in the United States, advanced 2.65%, to US$ 94.61 per barrel.
Prices moved away from their highs during the afternoon following information about possible negotiations between the United States and Iran to establish an agreement that would allow the Strait of Hormuz to reopen.
Despite this, the lack of definition regarding negotiations maintained pressure on commodity prices (a primary good with international prices). Oil developments remain relevant to markets because more expensive fuels can increase inflationary pressures and affect expectations for interest rates in different economies.
* with information from Reuters
