A check suspended from the results of the polls. Donald Trump promises to give $5,000 to every adult American citizen if Republicans retain the House of Representatives and the Senate in November. An electoral generosity of more than 1,000 billion dollars, without financing, timetable or precise modalities. The announcement is already of interest to investors in cryptocurrencies. The checks distributed during the pandemic had coincided with a surge in Bitcoin, but turning this correlation into a forecast would be moving a little quickly.
Key Points
Donald Trump promises a âdividendâ of $5,000 per American adult in the event of a Republican victory in the House and Senate
The bill would reach around $1.3 trillion, with no specified financing mechanism or Congressional vote
The 814 billion checks in 2020-2021 (COVID period) accompanied the rise of bitcoin from $5,000 to $69,000
With 38,000 billion in federal debt, the promise revives the âdebasing tradeâ argument towards gold and bitcoin
The âTrump dividendâ, a $1.35 trillion promise
At the Republican convention in Dallas, Donald Trump promised a payment of $5,000 to every adult American citizen if his party won both houses of Congress:
âIf Republicans win the House and Senate, I will pay a $5,000 dividend to every adult in the United States. »
Donald Trump, President of the United States â Source: Forbes
The only condition detailed by the president concerns the use of the money, which should be spent in the United States. However, no control mechanism was presented. Reuters also highlights the lack of information on the timeline, eligibility criteria and funding.
By retaining around 270 million beneficiaries, the bill would reach $1.35 trillion. Excluding the richest households would bring it back to around 1,150 billion, according to estimates reported by the US press. In both cases, the dividend looks more like a giant government expenditure than sharing the profits of a successful company.
Above all, the president cannot sign so many checks alone. Congress should vote for the necessary appropriations, a requirement recalled this time by the Associated Press. JD Vance mentioned an exclusion of wealthy taxpayers and possible financing through customs duties, without demonstrating that their revenues would be sufficient.
This is not the first dividend announced by Donald Trump. His previous proposal to pay $2,000 through tariffs never gained the necessary support in Congress. As for the âWarrior Dividendâ of $1,776 distributed to the military at the end of 2025, it essentially came from funds intended for housing already authorized by parliamentarians, and not from a new treasure miraculously discovered.
Can Bitcoin benefit from a new rain of checks?
The connection with the pandemic is obviously tempting. Between 2020 and 2021, Washington distributed three rounds of payments of up to $1,200, $600 and then $1,400. These 476 million payments represented approximately $814 billion, according to figures recalled once again by the Associated Press.
At the same time, Bitcoin rose from around $5,000 in March 2020 to a peak near $68,000 in November 2021. But checks were just one ingredient among others: near-zero rates, massive asset purchases by the Federal Reserve, savings accumulated during lockdowns and the arrival of institutional investors also drove the market.
A new massive payment could certainly inject money into consumption and, marginally, into financial markets. Above all, it would increase the budgetary needs of a state whose debt is already approaching 40,000 billion dollars. For some investors, this perspective reinforces the debasing trade, that is to say the purchase of gold or bitcoins facing the risk of monetary erosion.
However, the reasoning is not automatic. Additional public spending does not necessarily mean monetary creation by the Fed, while a resumption of inflation could cause a rise in rates unfavorable to cryptocurrencies.
