Who is behind the hot conflicts that put the world in danger of a new great war today? Do states make the decisions, or are they determined by economic and geopolitical interests that transcend states?
Russia has 5 thousand 459 nuclear warheads, the USA 5 thousand 177, China 600, France 290, England 225, Pakistan 170, India 180, Israel 90 and North Korea 50. (1) Suppose Iran has nuclear warheads or is able to produce them, what about the danger posed by other nuclear-armed countries? In which country's administration is "common sense" more dominant? How can the danger of our world being dragged into war by the decision of a "crazy" leader be ignored?
The balance of power during the Cold War largely discouraged a direct large-scale war between the United States and the Soviet Union. Now, instead of this balance, we see that the agreement to share the world cake is effective. Very soon, we will witness 70 percent of the world chip market being taken over by a single country.
Unfortunately, we are in a period where those who have the power can use their power as they wish, which means the laws of the jungle apply. Didn't the world's superpower already declare a possible "world war" by changing the name of the Ministry of Defense to "Ministry of War"?
The fire is fueled by Trump's tariff attack, the dethronement of the dollar, the dangerously increasing population, the evolution of artificial intelligence that makes this population unnecessary, and the rapidly growing income gap.
It should not be forgotten that the USA, the most indebted country in the world, cannot bear the loss of the "US Dollar" as the world currency; This alone is a reason for a "world war"! The decline in the value of the dollar and the debt dynamics of the USA are reigniting debates on the future of reserve currency status.
FROM TROY TO THE PRESENT
The truth is that human beings, who have not yet completed their development, have always been inclined to kill each other. This killing instinct has paved the way for wars throughout history and four "world wars". Yes, we are facing the danger of the 4th world war. Unfortunately, this danger is constantly kept warm, unconsciously by some, but quite consciously by others!
And we see that the reasons behind world wars are very similar.
Although it was not a world war in today's sense, the Trojan War is an important example in terms of understanding the power, trade and resource rivalries in the Eastern Mediterranean and Anatolian world of the period. In those years, the center of the world with Egypt, Hittite, Ancient Greek, Babylonian civilizations and Middle Eastern city states was Anatolia and its surroundings. The world entered a crisis as a result of civil unrest and mass migration movements caused by drought, volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, economic deterioration. The Dardanelles was very important in the trade of "bronze" and "tin", which were essential for weapon making, and wheat, the most important product of the drought period.
Like the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20 percent of global oil transportation is carried out today, the Dardanelles was a strategic transit point in terms of trade and transportation. At that time, when the economy was deteriorating, war became inevitable to control these trade routes.
TODAY'S STRATEGY
Today, what Turkey needs to do is to ensure that Hormuz can be an option for the transportation of energy and other products, with the opportunity brought by our country's geographical advantage, and that it is protected with its political and military power.
The First World War started again for economic reasons. The fact that Germany and Italy fell behind England and France, who became rich thanks to colonialism, their desire to get a share of the underground resources of the Middle East under the domination of the Ottoman Empire, and the monetary crisis at the beginning of the century fueled this war.
The collapse of international trade with the Great Depression in 1929, the feeling of revenge created by the terms of the Treaty of Versailles, and the rise of nationalist parties against communism, which was seen as a danger, prepared a new world war in 1939, and the Second World War was much more destructive. Historians in the future will write that the "third world war" started in 2022 with the Russia-Ukraine war.
Economic crises, resource competition, geopolitical calculations and technological transformations may prepare the conditions for wars, but the real cause of all wars is the "human" who is not yet mature enough. Wars are inevitable until human beings, one of the few creatures that kill their fellow humans for no reason, complete their development. The “fourth world war” will most likely be fought with sticks and stones, but unfortunately the cycle will continue like this.
(1) Data are taken from the report titled “Premeditated: Nuclear Weapons Spending in 2025” published by the Nuclear Weapons Prohibition Tracker and International Initiative to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN).
A. REFİK KUTLUER
ECONOMIST
