Meteorological expert Wu Derong: The tropical disturbance will develop into a strong Santo Niño, and the future path is still uncertain.
Quick Look
- Wu Derong, an adjunct associate professor at the Department of Atmosphere, Central University, pointed out that model simulations from various countries show that a tropical disturbance will develop into a strong Santo Niño station.
- The European model shows that its path will pass through Ryukyu to Zhejiang, and the American model shows that it will make a big turn near Ryukyu and invade Japan.
- The path is highly uncertain and requires continuous observation.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
Wu Derong is an adjunct associate professor in the Department of Atmosphere, National Central University, and often publishes weather analysis articles in the column of the Meteorological Application Promotion Foundation. Recent meteorological models in various countries (such as ECMWF and GFS) have simulated and predicted the development and path of tropical disturbances, which is an important basis for assessing the potential impact of strong typhoons.
Wu Derong pointed out that model simulations in various countries show that a tropical disturbance will develop into a strong storm in the Year of the Holy Infant. (Picture taken from tropical tidbits)
This morning (13th) is similar to yesterday (12th). The lowest temperature on the ground in various regions is about 23 and 24 degrees. It will be hot in various places during the day. The maximum temperature will rise to about 35 degrees in the north and about 36 degrees in the central and southern parts. From tomorrow (14th), another small northerly wind will affect the northern and eastern parts. Rain will turn to rain in the northern and eastern half. In addition, there is a tropical disturbance in the south that will develop into a "strong year of the Holy Infant". Future trends remain to be seen.
Wu Derong, an adjunct associate professor of the Department of Atmosphere of National Central University, wrote a column in the "Meteorological Application Promotion Foundation" today and pointed out that the latest European (ECMWF) model simulation shows that the western half of today will be partly cloudy, with occasional localized short-lived rainfall on the east side and the eastern half of Greater Taipei; there is also a localized short-lived rainfall in the afternoon in mountainous areas. It is hot in various places during the day, with the highest temperature rising to about 35 degrees in the north and about 36 degrees in the central and southern parts. Pay attention to sun protection. The temperatures in each region are as follows: 24 to 35 degrees in the north, 24 to 36 degrees in the center, 24 to 36 degrees in the south, and 23 to 35 degrees in the east.
Please read on...
Affected by another small northerly wind from tomorrow to Wednesday (16th), the moisture will gradually increase. There will be a chance of short-lived showers in the northern and eastern half, and it will be sunny and cloudy in the central and southern parts. On Tuesday and Wednesday, the temperature will drop slightly and become slightly cooler in the daytime at Sanbei Station, but it will still be hot during the day in the central and southern parts. From Thursday to Saturday (17th to 19th), the northeasterly wind will weaken, and the western half will be cloudy when it becomes sunny. There is an occasional chance of short-lived showers in the eastern half. It will be hot during the day and slightly cool at night.
Wu Derong pointed out that model simulations from various countries show that a tropical disturbance will develop into a strong typhoon in the Year of the Holy Infant. The simulation map at 20:00 on Saturday (19th) shows that the strong typhoon is already in the sea east of Ryukyu. The European (ECMWF) simulated path passes through Ryukyu and heads towards Zhejiang, while the United States (GFS) will make a great turn in Ryukyu and invade Japan. The uncertainty is already great and we should continue to observe it.
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What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Tropical disturbance will develop into a strong channel in the Year of the Holy Child
Likely · Within days
The strong typhoon will pass through the sea east of Ryukyu
Possible · Within days
A strong Taiwan may invade Japan or head to Zhejiang
Possible · Within days
Open Questions
- In which region will this strong station finally land?
- What is the specific impact of strengthening Taiwan on Taiwan?
- Why are there such big differences in path predictions between national models?
