While the regulations regarding the stock market and the "reliable economy" messages given by the economic management to local and foreign investors are coming one after another, the comments made in economic circles are not positive.
While it is stated that the loss of confidence in the capital markets will have a great impact on the economy and investments, it is stated that savings may be withdrawn from the financial system and directed to foreign currency and mattress pads, and transparency and audit problems may also negatively affect direct investments. Some economists are of the opinion that the current environment creates conditions preferred by "speculative rent capital" rather than long-term investments.
While it was announced that the assets of 46 companies, 18 funds and 42 people were frozen in the fund investigation, Borsa Istanbul closed last week with a 2 percent decrease. Minister of Treasury and Finance Mehmet Şimşek tried to persuade foreign investors in the USA, and Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz tried to persuade domestic investors at the TÜRKONFED summit in Elazığ by giving messages such as "Our foundations are solid. There is no problem in our economy." Although Yılmaz mentions the fund scandal as "It is a temporary problem in a limited area. The capital market will be stronger than before," economists' warnings focus on the fact that the crisis will not be limited to the capital market.
Prof. Serap Durusoy said, "The most important manipulation and extraordinary event of recent years is taking place in Turkey. Although the process is reflected to the public as a funding crisis, we are actually faced with an economic, legal, political, moral and trust problem."
Stating that trying to calm the environment with a positive political reflex will not change the reality of very serious economic and social costs, Durusoy said that the demand for foreign currency and the tendency towards pillows will increase and therefore less money will enter the savings system. Durusoy said, "The most important thing is to take steps to improve the economic conditions that force people to be included in this system."
'THERE IS A RISK OF CONTAMINATION'
Prof. Murat Birdal also drew attention to the warnings made by foreign investors regarding speculative transactions since June and said, "We see that a clean-up has been carried out now, but there is a lot of accountability to be made due to the fact that the CMB has allowed it so far." Pointing out the risk of the crisis spreading throughout the stock market, Birdal stated that investors in need of cash may have to sell their solid shares.
Birdal said, "It is a situation that threatens the entire stock market. There is Ziraat Investment intervention, but the investor sees that he cannot survive if left to his own devices. If you want international investors, you have to be held accountable for these mistakes made, but there is no such effort." Adding that there has been a deep hesitation about long-term direct investments due to the political environment for a long time, Birdal said, "We have structural problems and uncertainties regarding these investments, from education to law, that cannot be solved in the short term."
'CONDITIONS THAT RENT FAVORITES'
Prof. Erinç Yeldan said that the issue cannot be viewed simply as "If there is no trust, there is no investment". Describing the situation as "uncontrolled excessive speculation and 'moral hazard', that is, lawlessness and lack of merit, operated as casino capitalism disconnected from the realities of the real sector," Yeldan said, "All these are the favorite conditions of speculative rent capital.
Therefore, I think that the essence of the problem lies in the imbalances of the national economy, which has been transformed into a haven of cheap labor and a rent economy, rather than the distrust of international investors.”
'LIQUIDATION PROCESS DOES NOT BUILD TRUST'
Economist Güldem Atabay, on the other hand, pointed out that the MASAK investigation should not be extended to before 2024 and said: "These fund owners, CMB, BRSA, Borsa Istanbul and even a part of the judicial system may be involved. Therefore, the liquidation process does not give confidence to public officials that this scandal will be reached to the top. The words made by President Erdoğan, who has personally weakened public institutions and the separation of powers, to attract investments are insufficient to overcome the crisis of trust caused by the system. It is based on a crony relationship." "Unless the unpredictable order changes, Turkey's job in every field is very difficult."
