The Euribor, with one session left this Monday until the end of August, reaches an average rate of 2.9512% for the month, compared to the 2.855% with which it closed July and rises for the second time after the slight recess in June, reaching very close to the 3% it has not reached for two years, a level that it has exceeded twice this month in daily rate.
The 12-month Euribor surpassed the 3% barrier in daily rates on August 21, something that had not happened since September 2024, and surpassed it again on the 26th.
In August 2025, the indicator was at 2.114% and is now eight tenths higher, which represents upward pressure on the installments of variable mortgages and the direct consequence will be for mortgage holders whose annual review corresponds to the month of August.
If the month ended with the Euribor at 2.9512%, an average mortgage of 150,000 euros, for 25 years and with an interest rate of Euribor plus 1%, the annual increase would be close to 810 euros.
If the loan is higher, 300,000 euros, with the same conditions, the increase in installments could be close to 1,620 euros per year.
The average mortgage in Spain in the month of June was 178,365 euros, according to INE statistics released this week, an amount that, if contracted with a variable mortgage of Euribor plus 1%, would make a mortgage of that amount more expensive by more than 960 euros per year compared to a year ago.
The Euribor has turned upward in 2026, modifying the consequences that the conflict in the Middle East is having on inflation on interest rates.
In the case of the Euribor, any expectation of a rate increase by the European Central Bank (ECB) ends up being reflected in it and that is what, in the opinion of Antonio Castelo, iBroker analyst, is happening.
Castelo explained that the rise in the Euribor is discounting what may happen in the coming months, and anticipates that the ECB will have to be stricter and more restrictive and will move rates upwards.
According to this analyst, if inflation persists above 3%, the tightening of the ECB's rate policy may be prolonged and the Euribor will continue to rise.
A drop in the price of oil could lead the Euribor to correct a few tenths, but if it remains above 90-100 dollars a barrel, the door would open to new rate increases and the Euribor would be high and volatile, adds Castelo.
For the mortgage intermediary iAhorro, the ECB meeting on September 10 will be a key reference and if it confirms the rate increase that the market is already discounting, the Euribor could stabilize at current levels, but if it maintains rates again, it does not rule out some downward adjustment in subsequent sessions.
In the opinion of HelpMyCash mortgage analyst Miquel Riera, the current Euribor would be anticipating two more possible rate increases by the ECB before the end of the year: one in September and another, probably, in December.
Riera points out that, in the event of an agreement between the United States and Iran that causes inflation to moderate, the Euribor could end the year around 2.80%, but if the conflict continues it could reach 3% in December and even approach 3.10%.
On the other hand, the spokesperson for the real estate credit intermediary company iAhorro, Laura Martínez, points out that a daily Euribor of 3% like the one seen twice this month of August is something that should be monitored, although, despite this, the mortgage market has remained calm in recent weeks, with hardly any movement in the entities' offers.
