At the end of the senatorial elections of September 27, the control of the Republicans on the hemicycle, with their centrist allies, is not upset by the renewal of 178 seats out of 348. Nor is the probable re-election of Gérard Larcher (LR) as president of the institution, scheduled for Thursday. The fact remains that LR, which would lose around seven seats, while still awaiting affiliations and certain overseas results, is in the grip of erosion. Enough to reveal a certain weakening of the right-wing party, while Bruno Retailleau - easily re-elected in Vendée - hopes to outdo the central bloc candidates in the presidential election.
The historic breakthrough of the National Rally
Surely this is the consequence of the push of the National Rally? The flame party in any case strikes a big blow, by managing to form a parliamentary group in the Senate for the first time, a significant success in the middle of the presidential campaign. Alpes-Maritimes, Bouches-du-Rhône, Var, Vaucluse... With at least 15 seats acquired by the party of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella or their allies in the Union of Rights for the Republic (UDR), the RN thus fulfilled its objective even before the final results of the evening were made official.
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“It is a historic victory and a major step which has been reached,” wrote Marine Le Pen on X, welcoming a “general breakthrough” which confirms “the acceleration of the establishment of the RN throughout the territory”. A symbolic march, but not only that: it will be synonymous with increased speaking time, additional resources... and above all a valuable relay for Marine Le Pen's candidacy for the Élysée. In detail, RN MP Edwige Diaz succeeded in her bet in Gironde, and will move from the Palais Bourbon to the Palais du Luxembourg. Lost bet on the other hand for Marie-Caroline Le Pen, sister of Marine Le Pen, logically beaten in Sarthe.
As expected, however, the Republicans also suffered in the Mediterranean crown. The UDR, the party of the new mayor of Nice Éric Ciotti, thus won two seats in the Alpes-Maritimes, while the RN took two in Var and two others in Bouches-du-Rhône, among other lands of conquest. “It’s a boost for this presidential campaign,” said Vice-President Sébastien Chenu.
Even if it takes a back seat in the shadow of 2027, this indirect ballot, a reflection of the municipal elections, will be carefully analyzed by the party headquarters, seven months before the presidential election. Two observations stand out in particular: the local implementation of the RN is in fact clearly progressing, with scores sometimes quintupling compared to the last election in 2020; that of La France insoumise remains weak, despite the election of two Insoumis elected officials.
Insoumise France enters the Senate
While he was said to have been defeated, LFI deputy Gabriel Amard, also son-in-law of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, created a surprise in the Rhône. “Gabriel Amard gets us into the Senate, despite all the attempts to block it. A good omen for 2027,” greeted the leader of the movement on “Akin to LFI” according to the party leadership, it will sit in the parliamentary intergroup bringing together Mélenchonist deputies, senators and European deputies. And this, while waiting for the senatorial elections of 2029, at the end of which the Insoumis should be more numerous with the renewal of the senators of Île-de-France and the North.
On the left, the almost systematic presence of LFI lists in competition with other political groups has created a certain dispersion of votes, as among French people abroad. The Socialist Party (65 seats before the election) lost a few feathers, in Creuse for example, but obtained some gains, in Doubs and Hérault in particular. The final counts will show whether or not the PS remains the second force in the Senate ahead of the centrist Union (59 seats). As for the Ecologists, they lost a seat in Gironde and Alsace, a logical consequence of the switch from Bordeaux and Strasbourg to the municipal elections.
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Horizons, finally, represented by the group of Independents (20 members), can for its part legitimately believe in some gains, not insignificant for the dynamic of Édouard Philippe on the road to the Élysée. While uncertainty hovered over the future of the Macronist group RDPI (19 members), orphan of its influential president François Patriat who died this summer, its representative Xavier Iacovelli assured that it would continue.
In the evening, the President of the Senate, Gérard Larcher, estimated that the upper house must remain the “assembly of debate peaceful with reason and reflection”. Taking “note” of the upcoming creation of a nationalist group, the influential figure LR, candidate for re-election, affirmed that his role would be to “allow each group to fully exercise their rights” in the Senate, including in the Senate bodies.
