This is the last intermediate election before the presidential election. The senatorial elections are being held on Sunday, September 27, as a final rehearsal six months before the decisive election in April. The results will therefore be scrutinized by all staffs. Especially since the future tenant of the Elysée, whoever it may be, will have to deal with the Senate, which intends to play a counter-power role.
Senate elections rarely give rise to major special editions at 8 p.m. Sunday evening, the atmosphere will be hushed in the corridors of the Palais du Luxembourg, like the rest of the year, and the results will be announced in a courteous atmosphere and without outbursts.
It must be said that the renewal of half of the hemicycle does not help with spectacular upheavals or last minute reversals. Adjustments are made in small steps. The results are, what is more, predictable since they are the immediate translation of the balance of power in the municipal elections: the "major voters" who express themselves in this ballot by indirect universal suffrage are made up of 95% of local elected officials. To see more clearly, franceinfo presents the main issues to observe on Sunday for the different political forces.
Will the RN be able to create a parliamentary group?
Will the party of Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen make a mass entry into the Luxembourg Palace? This is the main issue of the election, an accessible horizon while the election last March was marked by a strong progression of the National Rally in medium-sized towns, providing it with a battalion of “major voters”.
Until now, the RN had only three senators. Reaching ten elected officials – the threshold required to be able to form a political group – would be enough for his happiness. This is a major objective for the party, because having a group gives more speaking time during parliamentary debates and more financial means to prepare legislative work. “It’s possible, but it won’t come down to much, hence the need to take care of the strategy and the campaign,” analyzes an RN senator for franceinfo.
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“We are targeting rural areas and mayors without labels, because that is where we have the most reserves of votes,” Ludovic Pajot, RN campaign director for these senatorial elections, confides to franceinfo. And to attract attention, many party lists are led by already known figures such as MP Edwige Diaz in Gironde or Marie-Caroline Le Pen in Sarthe. Political adversaries are already wondering about the consequences of the arrival of an RN group on the atmosphere of the debates, usually hushed and moderate. “Everyone is on the defensive regarding this perspective. I don’t see them not attacking the government, not creating commissions of inquiry or fact-finding missions,” worries a centrist senator.
Will LFI elected officials make their entry?
The departments of the Ile-de-France region are not affected by the renewal of the Senate this year (this will be the case in 2029). A handicap for La France insoumise which cannot translate its good results in the Paris region into municipal elections, such as in Saint-Denis or La Courneuve. Additional difficulty: Jean-Luc Mélenchon's movement has not concluded an alliance with the other left-wing forces and will present independent lists. He should not be able to form a group.
But LFI elected officials could nevertheless join the hemicycle. Gabriel Amard, son-in-law of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, is the one with the best chances in the Rhône. Insoumise France can capitalize on its municipal victories in Vaulx-en-Velin and Vénissieux. He will nevertheless have to convince voters of a more moderate left. “The march remains high,” he confided to Le Figaro in July. The entry of a rebel into the Senate would have symbolic value in this chamber where Jean-Luc Mélenchon took his first political steps in the 1980s, under the socialist colors – he was then the youngest senator in France. “Being represented in the Senate would be a democratic act, if only to allow the texts that we adopt or support in the National Assembly to continue the parliamentary shuttle,” confides Gabriel Amard to Le Figaro.
In the event of failure, the person responsible has already been found for LFI, which criticizes the environmentalists for their alliance with the socialists in the Rhône. “For the second time, Marine Tondelier’s party agreed with the PS (...) to prevent our movement from having any elected representatives in the Senate,” wrote Jean-Luc Mélenchon in this last week of the campaign.
Will the Republicans and centrists retain the majority?
Gérard Larcher, president of the Republicans of the Senate, is having quiet days. His re-election to the plate (the senatorial equivalent of the National Assembly perch) is not threatened. The alliance between the LR and the centrists should always retain the majority, the principle of half-renewals cushioning changes and ruptures. “This election will not change the configuration of the Senate. It will just slightly shift the balance of power between LR and the centrist groups,” explains a centrist senator. Currently, the LR group dominates the upper house of Parliament with 131 seats, but it needs the centrist Union group's 59 seats to form a majority.
The Republicans could nevertheless suffer from the good results of the RN in the south of France in the municipal elections. Roger Karoutchi, senator from Hauts-de-Seine and specialist in the electoral map, estimates the loss at three or five seats for his party. “The main challenge is not to lose too many senators and to ensure that we keep a majority which allows the Senate to remain a chamber of stability and weighting”, estimates Cédric Perrin, LR senator from the Territoire de Belfort.
Among the personalities to follow for the LR, there is notably Bruno Retailleau, candidate for re-election in Vendée. A formality for someone who is also running for the Elysée next April. It will also be necessary to follow the score of Valérie Boyer, who is running in front of a union list of the right and the center in Bouches-du-Rhône. “Our enemy is not a loss of voters but dissident lists in a certain number of departments,” continues Cédric Perrin. Dissidents who, once elected, could join the centrist Union group, which will also try to court senators without labels.
Can the Macronist group disappear?
François Patriat had planned not to run again. But the death this summer of the emblematic president of the Macronist group left a void among the senators of his group. “He was a tutelary figure. We expected to prepare the future with him,” Hauts-de-Seine senator Xavier Iacovelli confides to franceinfo. Does his disappearance also mean that of the group? Eleven seats are renewable out of the 19 that make up this group, called the Rally of Democratic and Independent Progressives (RDPI). “We were already promised it in 2020 and 2023,” quips Xavier Iacovelli, who believes he can maintain the same low water level. The RDPI group can count on the reinforcement of overseas senators who make up half of the group. “The loss of François Patriat made us realize that we were attached to this group and its sustainability,” said the elected official from Hauts-de-Seine.
Among the figures to follow, the president of the Paca region, Renaud Muselier, now working at Renaissance after having campaigned for a long time with the LR, the UMP or the RPR, could make his entry into the Palais du Luxembourg. He appears in second position on a list of unions between the right and the center.
Can the Socialists lose their second group rank in the Senate?
There are three left-wing groups in the Senate: an ecologist (16 seats), a socialist (64 seats) and a communist (18 seats), or 98 seats. The challenge this year would be to surpass the symbolic bar of a hundred elected officials. But the different groups are not in the same boat. If the communist group, little concerned with the geographical areas of renewal, will remain stable, environmentalists fear suffering the repercussions of their poor results in the municipal elections in March.
The Socialists think they can "limit the damage", according to comments made by the group's president, Patrick Kanner, to his troops, with the objective of retaining around sixty seats. But they could lose the symbolic rank of second force in the Senate and be overtaken by the centrist Union group.
