The electricity price is increasing sharply - approaching the high-cost protection

The average price of electricity in 2026 is across the country over 50 percent above the levels in 2025. In the northern parts of the country it has doubled, but from low levels.

There are several interacting factors behind the rush in 2026. The year began with a cold winter and it has been drier than usual, which has led to a shortage of the equivalent of 15 TWh in the water reservoir. This is the same amount of electricity that is used in electricity price range 2 for an entire year.

At the same time, it is maintenance season at the nuclear power plants, and a couple of reactors are shut down.

As an onion on the salmon, the war in Iran has stopped the transport of liquefied natural gas, LNG, from the major producer Qatar. LNG is what largely replaced the Russian pipeline gas after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. It is above all Germany that depends on it.

- It is transported by boat, and those boats are just as likely to steer the boat towards countries in Asia if they are prepared to pay more, says Magnus Thorstensson, analyst at the industry organization Energiföretagen.

In Germany, LNG is used to produce electricity, and the lack of natural gas raises the price of electricity, both on the continent and in southern Sweden as a consequence.

Predicting the development in autumn and winter is not entirely easy given all the variables. In November, nuclear power is expected to be fully operational again in Sweden and Finland, but weather and wind will have a major impact. If it is a mild winter with a lot of rain instead of snow, the water reservoir can be filled up, and then the wind power will also contribute more.

However, the energy industry expects a continued very high price during the first quarter of 2027.

- If you look at the futures, which describe how we think it will be in a normal situation, the electricity price will be 60-80 öre in electricity price areas 1 and 2, 1.10-1.20 in electricity area 3 and around 1.40 in electricity area 4, says Magnus Thorstensson.

These are very high electricity prices by Swedish standards, but in Germany, at the same time, over 2 kroner is expected on average.

The electricity price guarantee that the government introduced in 2026 currently applies until the end of the year. It is triggered if the spot price is above 1.50 on average over a month.

In electricity area 4, southern Sweden, it has averaged around 1.40 in the first half of October and is therefore approaching that limit.

It is almost twice as high as last year.