The 6.5 million Bulgarian voters are called to the polls on Sunday November 1 to decide between the outgoing president and a former interim Prime Minister. On the one hand Iliana Iotova, 62 years old, close to Prime Minister Rumen Radev, populist, left-wing nationalist and pro-Russian. She obtained 34.76% of the votes in the first round. On the other, Andreï Giourov, 50 years old, former Prime Minister, center-right liberal, former vice-governor of the Bulgarian National Bank, pro-European and favorable to Ukraine. In the first round, he received 31.95% of the votes.
The election mobilized very few voters in the first round, on October 25: the participation rate was only 23%. Will it be stronger in the second round when drone attacks in the Black Sea continue?
Black Sea under fire from drone attacks
At least 163 civil and commercial vessels were hit in the Black Sea in the first eight months of this year, according to the Turkish Merchant Shipping Chamber. Latest attack: a merchant ship targeted by a drone attack off the Bulgarian coast. It occurred approximately 21 nautical miles from Shabla, on the northern coast. All 18 crew members, including 14 Filipinos and four Ukrainians, were rescued. At the same time, the defense ministers of Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey met precisely to agree on the terms of cooperation in the face of these repeated attacks. They decided to “strengthen their cooperation through better information sharing and early warning capabilities,” according to Bulgarian Defense Minister Dimitar Stoyanov. In recent weeks, nearly thirty crew members have been missing and another has died, according to Romanian and Bulgarian authorities.
After a new attack on October 13, the Bulgarian Prime Minister had his words: “We do not have solid and clear evidence to make accusations against either side, but according to all logic, the result leans towards Russia. This new attack on commercial ships in the immediate vicinity of Bulgarian territorial waters is absolutely unacceptable." Unusual statement from the mouth of Rumen Radev, supporter of outstretched hands towards Moscow. On October 15, seven people were reported missing after a fire on board a merchant ship in the Black Sea. The Wine Trader, a chemical tanker flying the flag of San Marino, issued a distress alert when it was some 13 nautical miles away (24 km) southeast of the mouth of the Danube After this attack, Sofia summoned the Russian ambassador and Radev estimated that the attack "benefits Russia", without formally accusing her.
On October 23, around 9 a.m., the commercial cargo ship Khoryv was struck and sunk by drones in the Black Sea, 13 nautical miles (24 km) opposite the large city of Constanța, outside Romanian territorial waters. One sailor died and three were missing. There were 13 crew members on board the Khoryv, ten Ukrainians and three Azerbaijanis, and the boat was flying the flag of the Comoros.
The European Union is “deeply alarmed” by this new Russian escalation, declared on X the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. “These reckless attacks target innocent lives and openly defy international law.”
These attacks are considered by the EU to be part of Russia's war against Ukraine. Two Russian drones were, however, shot down by Romanian fighter planes, a week before this tragedy in Khoryv, but the tension did not decrease. NATO announced this week the deployment of additional aircraft and radar systems.
Two visions clash
The candidate of the populist and nationalist government, Iliana Iotova, had long placed her campaign under the sign of dialogue with Moscow. But recent waves of Russian drone attacks have deeply shocked Bulgarians. For political analyst Teodor Slavev, interviewed by AFP, the result of the first round is "a scathing electoral slap for the administration (of Prime Minister) Rumen Radev." and it is explained in particular by "Iotova's unconvincing response regarding Russian threats in the Black Sea."
The government wanted to minimize Russian threats, while the opposition highlighted security issues linked to the war in Ukraine during the electoral campaign. On the morning of the first round, Iliana Iotova focused on other themes: "We must tackle the problem of poverty in the country as well as regional inequalities. The one who presents herself as "President of Peace" is reserved on the continuation of military aid to Ukraine and wants negotiations to take place between Russia and Ukraine.
His rival, Andrei Giourov, criticizes him for making speeches marked by superficial optimism. A supporter of firmer support for Ukraine, he intends, if elected, to counterbalance the pro-Russian inclinations of the Prime Minister. It’s up to voters to decide. Will they be more numerous than the million and a half who came during the first round?
