Millions of people smoke in Germany, which brings the federal government billions through tobacco taxes. There should be even more income in the future. Smokers therefore have to be prepared for higher prices.
Smoking - for some it is an integral part of everyday life, for others it is a carcinogenic risk. (Archive image) Photo: Bernd Weißbrod/dpa
Berlin. Cigarettes are likely to become significantly more expensive in Germany in the coming years. On Friday night, the Bundestag voted with the votes of the coalition factions from the Union and the SPD in favor of an amendment to the law that will gradually increase the tobacco tax.
Since this tax increase is passed on to customers, the price will rise from the current average of just over 8 euros per pack of 20 cigarettes to probably just under 12 euros in 2030. Branded cigarettes could then even cost up to 14 euros. The amendment to the law will also make fine-cut cigarettes - i.e. cigarettes that you roll yourself - significantly more expensive than they currently are. Tax rates on the sale of cigars, cigarillos, shisha tobacco and e-cigarette liquids will also be increased.
Extra billions are planned - but will they come?
The federal government is hoping for additional tax revenue of around 12 billion euros within four years - in 2027 there should be an extra 1.5 billion euros and in 2030 even 4.5 billion euros. Last year, the federal government collected 17.6 billion euros from tobacco taxes.
However, the tobacco industry has doubts about the predicted bubbling tax revenues - they fear that smokers will turn to the black market and legal dealers will suffer losses. With this argument, industry representatives met with understanding from some Union MPs.
CDU MP Carsten Brodesser advocated moderate tax increases so that consumers do not switch to cigarettes from other EU countries or black market cigarettes. “In the end, neither the desired fiscal result nor the stabilization of the legal tobacco market will be achieved,” Brodesser warned during the legislative process.
However, the Christian Democrat was unable to prevail with this stance; the amendment to the law passed the Bundestag late on Thursday evening with the votes of the CDU/CSU and SPD. However, two members of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group voted against it.
Social democrat sees viable compromise
During the debate in the Bundestag, SPD MP Ingo Vogel said that the law also served to consolidate the budget. But: “At the same time, we want to send price signals that serve to protect health by making it less attractive to start consuming nicotine.”
It is also good that taxes on cigars and cigarillos will not increase as much as previously planned, said Vogel. When it comes to liquids for e-cigarettes, however, adjustments have been made a little more than originally planned. “Cheap products in particular should not be an easy introduction to nicotine consumption, and that is why we are increasing the price threshold here.” All in all, it is a viable compromise.
Critical statements from customs and the customs union warning of an increase in the black market are taken “very, very seriously,” said Vogel. If demand diverts to illegal channels, then “not only will we lose fiscally, but we will have to pay more attention to criminal structures,” said police officer Vogel.
Is it just about “plugging budget holes”?
Opposition came from the AfD. On the one hand, the coalition justifies the tax increase with health protection, on the other hand, it expects increasing tax revenue - that doesn't add up, said AfD MP Christian Douglas. "That means you don't expect people to smoke less - and you don't want them to either."
The amendment to the law serves “solely to plug budget holes”. The AfDler also warned against strengthening illegal channels. “The hoped-for billions are not coming because citizens are turning to the black market.”
The Greens are fundamentally in favor of increasing the tobacco tax. This sends “health policy price signals,” said MP Sascha Müller. From his point of view, however, these were too weak. The Green Party complained that the tax surcharge for fine cutting was too low.
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It is incomprehensible that this tobacco continues to be taxed significantly lower than factory cigarettes. This makes fine cutting, which is equally harmful to health, suitable as an alternative product. With a view to the black market problem, Müller appealed to the federal government to provide customs with the necessary resources. In addition to the Greens and the AfD, the Left also voted against the legal reform.
Almost one in five people is a smoker
Millions of people in Germany turn to tobacco cigarettes. The 2025 microcensus showed that 19 percent of those aged 15 and over smoke: 14 percent say they do so regularly and 5 percent occasionally. According to the German Cancer Research Center, around 131,000 people in Germany died as a result of tobacco-related diseases in 2023. Health experts believe higher prices are an effective measure to encourage smokers to quit.
The legislative process for tobacco tax ends on Friday in the Federal Council. The state chamber has the opportunity to object to the amendment to the law, but there is no sign of this so far. It is therefore expected that the Federal Council will approve the project and that the tax increase will be a done deal.
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