European companies remain unprepared for geopolitical shocks despite China-U.S. trade tensions

European companies are feeling the effects of the U.S.-China trade and tech war even as the EU readies measures to reduce its dependence on China, according to a new Bertelsmann Stiftung survey seen exclusively by POLITICO ahead of its publication Monday.

The European Business Survey of 228 companies operating in Europe exposed a striking gap: Businesses know geopolitical shocks can hit quickly, but relatively few are preparing for the next one.

Russia’s war in Ukraine has affected, or is expected to affect, 81% of respondents in the November 2025 to January 2026 survey. Yet only 10% had taken concrete steps to prepare for a similar contingency in Taiwan, while 59% had neither prepared nor planned to do so.

“It makes it just very clear that companies know that they can feel the pain of geopolitics disrupting their everyday business operations,” study co-author Jacob Gunter of the Mercator Institute for China Studies told POLITICO. “They have such a clear example, but haven’t done much with that.”

“To not see more action on that is quite worrying to me,” he added.

The same vulnerability runs through companies’ exposure to China. Just 24% of those questioned plan to reduce reliance on Chinese suppliers, while roughly one-third are considering strategic stockpiles of critical raw materials. And yet China’s export controls, including on rare earths, have already exposed those dependencies.

“It is, to me, quite shocking that we’re not seeing more stockpiling or diversifying of suppliers for the things that are already identifiable as part of ongoing trade and technology conflicts,” Gunter said.

Nearly one-third of respondents reported negative effects from U.S.-China trade and tech restrictions; among firms operating in China, the share was around half.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are expected to meet later this month, with suspended Chinese export controls likely back on the agenda.

“Most likely, these export controls will be on the table again. But does the EU have a seat at this table? I rather doubt that,” said Cora Jungbluth, a China expert at Bertelsmann Stiftung and co-author of the survey.

“So the question is how much influence will the EU be able to have in these negotiations and vis-a-vis China,” she added.

Brussels is now preparing a diversification instrument aimed at reducing reliance on single suppliers and strengthening supply chains, while trying to tackle a goods trade deficit with China of roughly €1 billion a day. Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič is expected in Beijing in October — with possible EU countermeasures if talks fail.

The Bertelsmann survey was produced with the Mercator Institute, international relations think tank Clingendael and the Finnish Institute of International Affairs. Participation was voluntary and the results are not statistically representative.