Fed's interest rate decision and its effects on global markets are on the agenda

The Fed's interest rate decision to be announced today is expected to be decisive on the direction of the markets. Following strong data on the employment market, rising inflation expectations and Fed President Kevin Warsh's emphasis on determination in the fight against inflation, it is considered certain that a 25 basis point increase in pricing in money markets will be made.

The explanations in the bank's decision text will be followed by investors. Possible changes that the Fed will make in macro forecasts and interest rate path at this meeting will also be in the focus of the markets.

Although Fed Chairman Warsh refrained from giving verbal guidance, his statements will be closely monitored. On the other hand, uncertainties about how long the ongoing mutual conflicts in the Middle East may last continue to be a risk factor in global markets.

The US 10-year bond interest, which rose to 5.04 percent yesterday and reached the highest level since July 2007, stabilized at 5 percent today after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent commented that the US bond market is the best performing market in the world.

On the other hand, in the US Senate, the required majority could not be reached in the procedural vote that would enable the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Bill", known as the "CLARITY Act", which aims to create a regulatory framework for digital assets, to be discussed in the General Assembly.

With this development, bitcoin is at the level of 75 thousand 780 dollars, with a decrease of 0.1 percent. The 10 percent decline in the shares of cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase also attracted attention.

Despite concerns about oil supply due to geopolitical risks, the barrel price of Brent oil for November delivery is at 108.1 dollars, with a decrease of 0.6 percent, due to the increase in US stocks. An ounce of gold is traded at $4,321 with a loss of 0.6 percent.

Despite the Fed's interest rate hike expectations, the dollar index is at 99.6 with a 0.1 percent decrease due to the financial concerns about the USA.

New York stock market remained negative

The New York stock exchange was negative yesterday as the rise in bond yields suppressed risk appetite.

Meta's shares gained nearly 1 percent after the company announced that it was testing new generation chips developed to run artificial intelligence models with lower cost and energy consumption.

Looking at the macroeconomic data side, the manufacturing index announced by the Fed's New York branch fell to 7.6 in September, below expectations.

On the other hand, according to American Automobile Association (AAA) data, the average gallon price of diesel in the USA broke the record with $6.27 today.

With these developments, the Dow Jones index lost 0.63 percent, the S&P 500 index lost 0.45 percent and the Nasdaq index lost 0.78 percent.

Index futures contracts in the USA started the day positively.

European stock markets fell

European stock markets were negative yesterday as the rise in oil prices continued to suppress risk appetite and the selling pressure in bond markets deepened. September results of the ZEW Economic Confidence Index in Germany were announced.

Accordingly, the index, which was 34.2 points in August, rose to 34.7 points in September with a limited increase of 0.5 points. Market expectation was that the index would reach 40 points in this period.

On the corporate side, Deutsche Bank shares fell 2.4 percent. With these developments, the FTSE 100 index in England lost 0.37 percent, the CAC 40 index in France lost 0.34 percent, the FTSE MIB index in Italy lost 0.14 percent and the DAX 40 index in Germany lost 0.15 percent on the day.

Index futures contracts in Europe started the day with a mixed trend.

Asian stock markets remain positive

The slight decrease in the selling pressure in the bond market and the slowdown in the rise in oil prices increased the risk appetite in Asian markets on the new day.

According to macroeconomic data announced today, exports in Japan for August increased by 19.3 percent and imports increased by 28 percent, exceeding expectations. The country's foreign trade deficit for August increased from 638.3 billion yen to 1.1 trillion yen. Thus, Japan had a deficit in its foreign trade for 4 consecutive months. Analysts stated that the consecutive foreign trade deficit in the country was due to the increase in energy costs.

With these developments, near the closing, the Kospi index in South Korea rose by 0.3 percent, the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong rose by 0.1 percent, the Shanghai composite index in China rose by 0.6 percent, and the Nikkei 225 index in Japan rose by 0.3 percent.

The stock market ended the day with a decline

BIST 100 index at Borsa Istanbul, which followed a sales-oriented trend yesterday, finished the day at 13,892.30 points, losing 2.41 percent of its value.

The October futures contract based on the BIST 30 index in the Borsa Istanbul Futures and Options Market (VIOP) increased by 0.09 percent in last night's session compared to the normal session closing.

While Dollar/TL completed the day horizontally at 48.6292 yesterday, it is traded at 48.6520 at the opening of the interbank market today, 0.1 percent above the previous closing.

Analysts stated that today, the housing price index will be followed in the country and the intense data agenda will be followed abroad, especially the Fed's interest rate decision in the USA and Fed President Kevin Warsh's press conference, and noted that technically, 13,800 and 13,700 points in the BIST 100 index are support and 14,000 and 14,100 points are resistance.

The data to follow in the markets today are as follows:

10.00 Türkiye, August housing price index

11.30 England, July house price index

12.00 Eurozone, July industrial production

14.00 USA, weekly mortgage applications

15.30 US, August retail sales

20.00 ECB President Lagarde's speech in the Eurozone

21.00 Fed's interest rate decision in the USA

21.30 Fed President Warsh's press conference in the USA