
AI-generated summary
Flavio Bolsonaro, until a few months ago a little-known senator, has been designated political heir by his father, who cannot run as he is serving a 27-year sentence for an attempted coup d'état after his 2022 electoral defeat. The surname Bolsonaro, however, has allowed his son to win over the conservative electorate despite a scandal-ridden election campaign.
Right-wing senator Flavio Bolsonaro surprisingly took first place ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brazil's presidential election; the challenge will be decided in a run-off in three weeks, given that neither of the two has achieved an absolute majority. In a result that contradicted poll projections, which gave Lula the lead, Flavio Bolsonaro won 47% of the votes against 45% for the outgoing president. If Bolsonaro were to triumph in the October 25 vote, the major Latin American power would join the marked turn to the right that has characterized recent elections in the region, a trend supported by US President Donald Trump.
The right advances in parliament
The election results also saw a series of clear victories for the right in parliament, representing a severe blow for Lula who, at almost 81 years old, is aiming for a fourth term to consolidate his political legacy. "I admit that I was convinced that we would win in the first round. The match is about to begin: in extra time we will win over the Brazilian people," said the 80-year-old. The left-wing veteran called the election a battle between democracy and "barbarism", warning voters that Brazil's sovereignty was at stake in the face of US pressure.
See also
Vote Brazil, electronic ballot boxes for Amazonian communities
Bolsonaro: "Happy". Lula: "Unexpected result but we will win"
Until a few months ago, Flavio Bolsonaro was a little-known senator; then his father designated him as his political heir, as he was unable to run himself as he was serving a 27-year sentence for an attempted coup d'état, following his electoral defeat in 2022. However, his father's high-sounding name won over the country's conservative electorate, allowing him to overtake Lula despite an electoral campaign marked by scandals and mutual accusations. "I'm really happy with the result," said Flavio Bolsonaro after the release of the data, underlining the "very real possibility" of a victory in the runoff. Voters in a deeply polarized nation appeared disillusioned with the now familiar options, and few voted with conviction. "This vote marks the end of the season of the PT, of Lula's party", added the Trumpian candidate. "The Brazilians have chosen the change. In three weeks the Brazilians, in the run-off, will say the final word against this corrupt government", he concluded. Outgoing president Lula does not hide his disappointment, admitting that the result was "unexpected". Then he added: "We are committed to the run-off and we will win. We will be able to convince the Brazilian people." He then illustrated the central points of his electoral campaign in the coming weeks, starting with the effort to attract the vote of those who abstained, a potential electorate of over 33 million people. "
In-depth analysis
Lula-Bolsonaro, the challenge for Brazil that impacts the rest of the world
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Flavio Bolsonaro will win the presidential run-off on October 25, 2026
Likely · Within weeks
Lula will focus his campaign on recovering the abstention vote, amounting to over 33 million people
Very likely · Within weeks

The Budget Law provides for a 5% flat tax for under 35s and Irpef remodulation, while awaiting Ecofin for the flexibility clause on energy and defense.

According to a Datafolha projection based on 55.6% of the votes counted, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro will face Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the presidential run-off on October 25, with 49.17% to 42.01%.

With around 40% of the votes counted, Flavio Bolsonaro is at 50.4% and Lula at 41.4%, with an advantage of 9 points. However, the gap could narrow as the first results traditionally favor the sovereignist candidate, while the votes from the north-eastern states, Lula's strongholds, will arrive later.

Over 3.4 million voters in Bosnia and Herzegovina voted in the general elections which renew the tripartite presidency and over 500 institutional positions. Former pro-Russian leader Milorad Dodik said his party retained power despite a sharp drop in voter turnout.

In Brazil, with almost 32% of the ballots counted in the 2026 presidential and legislative elections, Flavio Bolsonaro is in the lead with 50.74% of the votes, followed by Lula at 41.14%. If Bolsonaro exceeds 50%, he wins in the first round and becomes president in 2027; otherwise we will go to the run-off on October 25th.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez could announce an advance to the political elections as early as tomorrow after the parliamentary rejection of the housing decrees, according to El Pais. PSOE and the government are preparing the electoral scenario by also evaluating the reinstatement of the rejected measures, possibly after the dissolution of the Cortes.