The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected the growth of the Brazilian economy at 2.2% in 2026, in the World Economic Perspectives document, released on Monday night (12).
In the previous version of the study, published in July, the estimate was for growth in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP, the set of all goods and services produced in the country) at 2.4%. For 2027, the forecast for growth increased from 2.2% to 1.9%.
Despite the reduction for 2026, the IMF projection remains above what was expected by the Brazilian government itself. The Macrofiscal Bulletin of the Secretary of Economic Policy of the Ministry of Finance, released in September, lowered the GDP growth estimate from 2.3% to 2.0%.
Focus, a survey by the Brazilian Central Bank (BC) with financial market institutions, predicts an increase of 1.85% in 2026 and 1.40% in 2027.
The IMF is a multilateral institution linked to the United Nations and its mission is to maintain the stability of the global financial system.
The forecast of the behavior of Brazilian GDP is one of the perspectives covered in the global report, which also points to a decrease in growth in Latin America and an increase in the estimated global growth.
Interest rates pressure
When commenting on data from Brazil, the largest economy in Latin America, IMF technicians point to the still restrictive monetary conditions as the reason for the slowdown, that is, high interest rates, in addition to the withdrawal of fiscal stimuli and international uncertainties.
The high interest rates cited by the IMF refer to the Selic rate, the BC's main instrument for containing inflation. The higher the Selic, the more expensive the credit, causing a disincentive for consumption and productive investments, in order to cool the economy.
Currently, Selic is at 13.75% per year, which represents a downward trajectory that began in March 2026, when it was at 15% per year.
Inflation on target
The IMF report provides projections for inflation. Technicians believe that Brazil will end 2026 with a rate of 4.4% and, in 2027, 4.1%.
Both estimates are within the Brazilian government's target, which tolerates up to 4.5% (3% with a margin of 1.5 percentage points more or less).
The study comments that several countries face the risk of new inflationary pressures caused by the international price increase in energy and food.
According to the Ministry of Finance, inflation in the country should reach 4.9% in 2026 and 3.8% in 2027. Focus estimates 5.22% this year and 4.30% next year.
Commodities
The IMF bulletin makes two mentions of Brazil when analyzing the commodities scenario (raw materials traded at international prices).
In relation to oil, the IMF emphasizes that prices are fluctuating greatly, due to the conflict in the Persian Gulf, where the Strait of Hormuz is located, which before the war that began in the first quarter, was the path to 20% of global production of oil and derivatives.
The IMF points out that the market made the adjustment to increase production in countries outside the region, notably in Brazil, Kazakhstan, the United States and Venezuela.
The document also mentions that agricultural prices rose due to the increase in the prices of cereals and beverages. In the case of coffee, it points to an increase of 8% from March to August, after heavy rains in the state of Minas Gerais, which delayed the harvest and increased concerns about the quality of the crop.
Job market
For the job market, the IMF points out that 2026 should end with an unemployment rate of 6.2%. For 2027, the projection is 6.8%.
