Statutory pension: Pensions are expected to increase by more than four percent from 2027

According to the draft, a standard pensioner would have almost 79 euros more available per month. However, the actual increase could – again – differ.

Berlin. The over 21 million pensioners in Germany can hope for a significant increase in their salaries above the price increase in 2027.

In preliminary calculations, the Federal Ministry of Labor assumes a pension increase of 4.09 percent on July 1st. This emerges from the draft pension insurance report 2026, which was available to the Reuters news agency on Tuesday. The contribution rate for pension insurance should remain stable at 18.6 percent until the end of 2027. In 2028 it is expected to rise sharply to 19.7 percent. An increase to 20.0 percent is expected by 2030.

Labor Minister Alexander Schweitzer (SPD) submitted the draft, which was also reported by the “Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung”, to the other ministries on Tuesday. However, the pension increase expected for 2027 is initially only an estimate. The plus will not be finally determined until spring, when all the necessary data on wage developments are available.

This year it became clear that the actual increase can vary. In autumn 2025, the government was still expecting a pension increase of 3.73 percent for 2026. In fact, salaries rose by 4.24 percent as of July 1, half a percentage point more than expected.

According to the new calculations, the current pension value would rise from 42.52 to 44.26 euros on July 1, 2027. For a standard pensioner with 45 years of contributions, this meant 78.30 euros more per month. Pensions would therefore continue to rise faster than inflation in 2027. The federal government expects a price increase of three percent for 2027.

Pension fund reserves are decreasing

However, the pension insurance must continue to reduce its reserves. At the end of 2025, it still had a sustainability reserve of 41.4 billion euros. At the end of 2026 it will probably still be 31.2 billion euros. That corresponds to almost a month's edition.

According to the calculations, the reserve could fall to around 12.1 billion euros at the end of 2027. Without the increase in contributions expected for 2028, it would then fall below the legally required minimum limit.

The federal government’s pension package approved in 2025 is taken into account in the calculations. It secures the pension level at 48 percent of average wages until 2031. According to current calculations, the level is then expected to fall again and fall to 46.5 percent by 2040.

The federal government will cover the additional expenses for the holding line and the expansion of the mother's pension from tax revenue. According to calculations, reimbursements for the stop line alone will increase from 1.7 billion euros in 2027 to 13.2 billion euros in 2031.