
AI-generated summary
Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti presented the deficit and debt forecasts after the approval of the Public Finance Planning Document (DPFP) by the Council of Ministers, placing them in the context of the European rules which allow additional spending under certain conditions.
"The deficit should remain below 3% also in 2026, but as you know it is not enough and our forecasts, taking into account the additional spending allowed by European rules, are that it will rise to 3.4% in 2027, 3.3% in 2028 and 2.4% in 2029". The Minister of Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti said this in a press conference, after the meeting of the Council of Ministers which approved the DPFP.
"As regards the debt path, the trend profile is at 138.1% in 2026, 138.6% in '27, 137.7% in '28 and 136.3% in 2029", added the minister.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
The public deficit will rise to 3.4% in 2027 and 3.3% in 2028 before falling to 2.4% in 2029
Likely · Within months
The debt-to-GDP ratio will follow a profile of 138.1% in 2026, 138.6% in 2027, 137.7% in 2028 and 136.3% in 2029
Likely · Within months

The Public Finance Policy Document indicates growth is forecast at 1% in 2026, slowing to 0.8% thereafter, with public debt rising to 138.6% in 2027 before starting to decline. The deficit should fall below 3% of GDP in 2026 thanks to the deviation allowed for defense and energy, allowing Italy to exit the EU infringement procedure. Among the measures under study: extension of the cut in the second Irpef rate up to 60,000 euros, flat tax at 5% for salary increases for young people, possible confirmation of the home bonus at 50-65% and partial use of the national safeguard clause for 28 billion allocated to defense and energy in 2027-2028.

According to an Eumetra survey, 79% of Italians report an increase in spending on fuel compared to six months ago, exceeding the increases in bills (74%) and food spending (68%). The increase in costs has led 43% to reduce car use and 32% to give up travel, while Istat confirms a decline in consumer and business confidence in September 2026. Facile.it estimates a burden of over 1.3 billion euros more than the previous year, with a possible increase of 36% in October.

Taxpayers can join the scrapping-quinquies between 16 October and 15 December 2026 to facilitate the settlement of debts entrusted to the Revenue-Collection Agency by local authorities that have adopted the provision by 31 July 2026. The membership concerns 1,481 Municipalities, 5 Regions, 11 Provinces and 4 Unions of municipalities, with a prevalence of authorities from the South and the Islands (68%). It allows you to pay only the capital due and the notification costs, eliminating interest and penalties on local taxes such as Imu, Tari, Tasi and fines from the local police.

In Italy, declared incomes show strong disparities: footballers earn on average 250 thousand euros per year, while nightclub managers declare just over 11 thousand euros. In 2024, approximately 24.8 million Italians did not pay Irpef, despite the overall revenue reaching 216.2 billion euros, concentrated mainly in the highest income brackets.

According to Confesercenti, since 2022 energy shocks have caused the Italian economy to lose 46 billion in purchasing power, over 30 billion in consumption and almost 52 billion in real GDP, while the fiscal pressure has increased by 77 billion in additional taxes for families and businesses compared to 2021. President Gronchi calls for a European shield against vulnerability to external shocks and structural measures to reduce energy costs and lighten labor taxes, warning of an autumn in the balance for the Italian economy.

The Censis-Confcooperative Focus reveals that the underground economy in Italy involves 2.7 million irregular workers and generates over 100 billion in annual tax and social security evasion, deducting an average of 3,350 euros per citizen. Irregular work pays on average half as much as regular work, while under-declaration of income represents the most significant item, with 108.2 billion euros. Deputy Minister Maurizio Leo reports a positive trend in the recovery of tax evasion thanks to technology and AI, respecting privacy and human control.