Just considering the impact of energy shocks on inflation, from 2022 to today the economic system would have lost around 46 billion euros in purchasing power, over 30 billion in consumption and almost 52 billion in real GDP. The dynamics of the tax burden, which "continued to rise", further weighed on the budgets. Families and businesses, according to Confesercenti calculations, would have incurred around 77 billion euros in additional taxes compared to what they would have paid if the levy level had remained unchanged compared to 2021.
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The problem, observes Gronchi, also arises from the growing impact of external factors on the continent's economies. "In recent years, in the European economies and in particular in the Italian one", exogenous elements have ended up significantly influencing the performance of the economy. Hence the need to build more effective protection: "If we are so exposed to external factors, we must build a shield capable of reducing this vulnerability". A strategy which, however, cannot be entrusted to individual states: "It can only have a European dimension. No single European country has, alone, the necessary strength to impact the great global dynamics of energy, trade and geopolitics". It is especially when looking at the next few months that concerns increase. The next few months look uncertain, with an international scenario still unstable, the cost of energy rising again and growth remaining weak. The risk, for families and businesses, is to return to finding themselves "squeezed between rising costs and a slowdown in consumption", underlines the president of Confesercenti.
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The first test is represented by bills. "At every level, for companies, the energy cost alarm is an absolute priority", explains Gronchi. The summer heat also accentuated the problem, causing demand to rise just at the moment when energy prices began to rise again. The weight of the energy component no longer only concerns the competitiveness of industry, but has significantly extended to the tertiary sector. For hotels, restaurants and other businesses, air conditioning and refrigeration are now essential to guarantee service. "Whoever manages a hotel or restaurant can improve efficiency, but has little margin to reduce this consumption without compromising the service," says Gronchi. The emergency, however, cannot be addressed only with temporary measures. "We need to stop the emergency, but we must also tackle the problem at its root, with a structural reform that permanently reduces energy costs." The government has already allocated over 2 billion euros to excise duty reductions between March and the first days of September, but the continuous exposure to shocks makes any intervention particularly costly.
On the income front, the picture remains equally delicate. Between 2005 and 2025, according to the association's calculations, the average real income from work per employee fell by 4,400 euros per year, with a particularly marked contraction for self-employed workers. Hence the request to include measures to support family income in the next budget. Taxation also remains at the center of the debate. "The abolition of the stamp duty was welcomed: a sign of how much taxation weighs on daily life and how urgent it is to lighten it", remarks Gronchi. The tax reform, according to the proposal, should continue to move in the direction of a reduction in the tax on labor, without distinguishing between employees and self-employed. "The reform must continue along this path, reducing the tax burden especially on work: all work, both employed and self-employed".
Also worrying is the weakening of a part of the middle class, increasingly exposed to the loss of purchasing power. "Even large parts of the so-called middle class are now fragile", observes Gronchi. For this reason, the tax benefits of the next Budget Law should also reach these families: "The middle class cannot skip the ride". The declared objective is to reverse a progressive erosion of the intermediate segment of the population. "We must restore weight, vitality and solidity to a middle class that is progressively in danger of being absorbed downwards." Among the proposals is the tax relief of up to 1,000 euros on thirteenth wages, together with the strengthening of relief for self-employment. The aim is to increase disposable income and, through greater spending capacity, also support consumption and growth.
The energy problem in fact risks producing a double negative effect on the tertiary sector. "The cost of energy affects the tertiary sector twice: in direct costs and in lost consumption". The increase in electricity and gas tariffs, together with the increase in fuel prices, could subtract 6.6 billion euros from the growth in household spending this year. In parallel, inflation risks reaching 4%. For this reason, the reduction of exposure to energy prices is indicated as a priority to defend what is defined as the "real economy": companies that generate income, employment and tax revenue in the territories. However, these realities also have to deal with growing competitive pressure. In fact, added to the higher costs is the competition from large groups and platforms that have greater financial resources and can, according to Confesercenti's reading, locate profits in the most convenient tax systems.
One of the most obvious signs of difficulties comes from the retail trade. "Between 2019 and 2025, according to our calculations, businesses decreased by over 111 thousand units, around 50 per day", highlights Gronchi. A contraction that not only means a reduction in the number of activities present in cities and territories, but also a loss of employment, economic capacity and tax base. “We lose economic capacity, jobs and part of the tax base.” Shops, public establishments and personal services represent an important component of the revenue. Estimates indicate that these activities pay a total of over 8 billion euros a year in local taxes and Irpef.
Finally, to support growth it will be necessary to relaunch private investments. The conclusion of the Pnrr and the rise in rates make it necessary to facilitate access to credit, also through instruments such as the Central Guarantee Fund and Consortiums. But the transformation also passes through technology. "The AI revolution is ready to enter even the smallest businesses." To prevent the digital transition from remaining the prerogative of larger companies, we need rules, skills and tools that allow even smaller companies to use new technologies safely. The proposal is that of a new "Enterprise 5.0", capable of bringing digital and artificial intelligence also to SMEs. The starting point therefore remains an economy that has demonstrated significant resilience, but which is preparing to face complex months. As the president of Confesercenti underlines, "the Italian economy has resisted, but the next few months promise to be particularly uncertain. It will be an autumn in the balance".
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