The Censis-Confcooperative Focus sheds light on a chasm of 2.7 million irregular workers and over 100 billion a year in tax and social security evasion. "Undeclared work is an economy that cannot be seen or taxed" and every year "it takes away 3,350 euros from every Italian, from newborns to the elderly", explained Maurizio Gardini, president of Confcooperative. "With the same sum, we could cover, for over a year, the national health expenditure which is worth around 142 billion (per year). Behind these numbers, there is another reality. Unacceptable: 2.7 million irregular workers, exploited and paid almost half of their regular colleagues".
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According to the survey, the underground economy. The cost of irregularity for the Italian economy, this invisible economy is driven by three forces: irregular work, under-declaration of income, and other various components such as illegal rent and undeclared tips in restaurants, hotels and personal services which are worth 12.2 billion euros (stable figure since 2019).
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Italy is burdened by 77.2 billion euros (+4% since 2019) from irregular work, i.e. unregistered or only partially declared employment relationships. What weighs more than the number is the price of this condition: those who work without a contract earn on average 9.2 euros gross per hour compared to 17.8 of their regular colleagues, recording a loss of 48.3% which is close to 53.5% in industry. In essence, those who work without a contract, on average, earn half as much. In 2024 - the survey reports - there were 2 million 725 thousand irregular workers in Italy, up by 117 thousand units compared to the previous estimate, while remaining an overall decrease of 2.1% in six years from 2019-2024 (against a +5.4% of regular employment, an increase of 1,219 thousand units).
As regards under-declaration of income, the survey attributes a weight of 108.2 billion euros to it (+21.6% from 2019): these are businesses, professionals and self-employed workers who declare less to the tax authorities than they actually earn, evading taxes on production, income and VAT.
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Every year, evasion deducts around 100 billion from the public coffers, especially between VAT (30 billion) and Irpef of self-employed workers and businesses (over 36 billion). The average propensity to evade out of total tax revenue is equal to 17.4%: in practice, for every 100 euros of expected revenue, almost 17 never reach the State. The peak is recorded on the Irpef of self-employed workers and businesses, where the propensity to evade rises to 60.6%. And the final bill falls on the entire country, with the public debt having exceeded 3,000 billion euros, equal to 136.7% of GDP. Between 2021 and 2023 alone, the sum of lost tax and contribution revenues reached 313 billion euros, a figure 88 billion higher than the entire amount of Pnrr resources allocated to Italy (225 billion). And the conclusion is clear: the growth of the underground economy in Italy is increasingly driven by under-declaration of income, rather than by illegal work alone.
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"The undeclared economy is a multiplier of inequalities, which first of all affects those who work without protection. Every euro that escapes general taxation - commented Maurizio Gardini - is one euro less for healthcare, for pensions, for the services that hold the country together: a boulder that is passed on to the public debt and to future generations. The fight against the undeclared economy is a priority to be addressed for the social and economic cohesion of Italy".
Meanwhile, in recent days the Deputy Minister of Economy and Finance Maurizio Leo, during a hearing in the Tax Registry Commission, underlined that the fight against tax evasion "thanks also to technological innovation", shows a reassuring trend: "In 2023 we recovered 31.4 billion euros, in 2024 33.4 billion, in 2025 36.1 billion", therefore 101 billion in the three-year period, "an absolute record". As part of the tax reform, "particular emphasis" is being given to technology and artificial intelligence, with the aim of promoting the interoperability of databases, Leo explained, while pointing out that this happens "in compliance with the rules of privacy" and always with the "direction of man": "There will be no automatisms - he assured -, there will always be human intervention".
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