War and geopolitical tensions replace the environment and pandemics as the UN's main concerns

For 36% of those interviewed, a large-scale war could affect a significant portion of humanity within a year. The percentage rises to 76% when the period considered is seven years.

War was also the only risk to appear in the top six across all criteria assessed. The study considered the importance of each threat, the proximity of its effects, the relationship with other risks and the level of preparedness of institutions to face it.

The scenario has changed in relation to 2024. In that year, environmental threats, misinformation and pandemics were among the main concerns. Now, geopolitical tensions, wars and the weakening of the rule of law take center stage.

The change appears in all seven regions analyzed by the UN. Large-scale war and geopolitical tensions are among the top ten risks in all of them and in the top five in six regions. Two years ago, both risks were in the top five in just one region.

Other threats also gained prominence. Weapons of mass destruction entered the top ten risks in Central and South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. In East Asia and Southeast Asia, concerns have grown about a possible global financial crisis, the effects of artificial intelligence and the power of technology companies.

Artificial intelligence appears to be a growing concern in other parts of the world. Risks linked to technology entered the top ten in Europe and North America. At the same time, the report points out that the multilateral system is considered poorly prepared to deal with technological threats.

Climate change remains among the main risks. The lack of action against global warming was identified as the most important threat in the survey. Pandemics and biological risks no longer appear in the top ten in all regions.

The report is not a prediction. According to the UN, it represents experts' perception of current risks. The majority of respondents consider cooperation between governments to be the most effective measure to prevent crises. For 86%, however, the resources allocated to reducing risks are insufficient.