The framework didn't fit at all - considering the political importance of the debate. At the start of the budget discussions, Finance Minister Roland Lescure stood in front of an almost empty plenary hall late on Tuesday evening and tried to convince the few people present of the seriousness of the situation: "2026 is not over yet - and the year is characterized by the fact that crises are piling up," he said. It is essential to get back to a balanced budget. "That's why we're going back on the restructuring course in 2027."
Financially, France has its back to the wall: the debt ratio is almost 120 percent of economic output. Almost 80 billion euros are budgeted in the current budget for interest payments on loans alone.
“We cannot accept this,” warns Lescure. "To prevent us from having to borrow more and more money and to maintain our scope, there is only one way: to reduce our budget deficit" - from the current 5.4 to 5.0 percent of economic output.
Cuts amounting to 40 billion euros planned
To this end, the government is planning “rehabilitation measures” amounting to a good 40 billion euros in its draft budget. She wants to cut back on development aid and employment policy; pensions and housing subsidies should not be adjusted to inflation as usual.
Defense spending, on the other hand, is expected to increase significantly. Éric Coquerel from the radical left party LFI is chairman of the budget committee. He described the government's warnings as "doom and gloom" and accused it of failing in economic policy: "Those who say we have no money left are in no position to teach lessons!"
Opposition sees government failure
According to Coquerel, they have all failed in their promises: "They have not reduced the budget deficit, unemployment is rising again and is at a good eight percent." This policy has destroyed the country.
The government faces a Herculean fiscal task. And a political tightrope act. Because she doesn't have a majority of her own in the National Assembly - and she can hardly count on the opposition's willingness to compromise: six months before the presidential election.
Socialists demanded rejection even before the debate
As the evening progressed, the plenary hall in the assembly filled up. The Socialists had tabled a motion to reject the government's draft budget before the substantive debate on it had even begun.
MP Estelle Mercier justified her group's move: "This budget draft is not characterized by reason - but by injustice. A sensible budget law in a parliament without a majority, in a divided country, would have to be a fair one. It would have to be one in which everyone participates in the austerity efforts, measured according to their abilities - and which would therefore be capable of compromise."
The application failed, so budget negotiations continue. But the episode shows how great the political pressure is on the government. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu was able to get the last budget through parliament thanks primarily to negotiations with the Socialists - who are now entering into confrontation.
Le Pen is thinking about her possible presidency
Marine Le Pen is pursuing a different strategy. At a Politico event, the presidential candidate of the right-wing Rassemblement National recently said: "I want to make sure that the budget is less bad. Not to wave it through - but to be able to change it when I'm president."
Le Pen - like the government - has an interest in having a budget by the end of the year. Otherwise, a "special law" would have to be created again: a transitional solution through which the previous year's budget can be carried over into the new year one-for-one and for a limited period of time. However, it offers no political scope - and austerity measures would not have an immediate effect.
Budget can probably only be achieved with a risky strategy
Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu should have no illusions: getting the austerity budget through parliament with a regular vote already seems impossible. Instead, Lecornu could opt for Constitutional Article 49.3 again. This would allow him to pass the budget through parliament without a vote - but in return he would risk votes of no confidence and the fall of the government.
The shaky majorities in parliament and the parties' need to raise their profile before next year's election make the government's budget once again a political squaring of the circle.
