Bitcoin has lost nearly half its value since its all-time highs a year ago. On 7 October 2025 the price of the digital currency was 126 thousand dollars while at the beginning of July it reached its minimum since September 2024 at 59 thousand dollars, for the first time below the psychological threshold of 60 thousand. It then recovered but now its value is stuck near 63 thousand dollars. The cryptocurrency was launched in 2009 as an alternative to the traditional payments system mediated by banks and governments. However, it was soon discovered that transactions carried out with this new technology were slow and expensive, and its price was too volatile. Supporters then began to promote it as a store of value, and for years Bitcoin was referred to by many as digital gold. The losses recorded in the last year, however, are calling into question this paradigm and artificial intelligence could (also) be to blame.
Because this decline is more frightening than the previous ones
Previous “crypto winters” have seen even worse lows of up to -80% in the past. This decline, however, would be of particular concern to Bitcoin faithful because it is dictated more by a constant loss of investor interest than by a single period of turbulence. In the past, cryptocurrency prices have often grown in tandem with profit taking in stocks and precious metals such as gold. The trend was instead decorrelated to the performance of the US dollar. Over the last year, however, Bitcoin has seemed to follow a trend of its own. The increase in gold prices on the one hand and the weakening of the US dollar on the other did not act as a driving force. As for the reference US stock market index, the Nasdaq, over the last year on days when the market recorded a rise, the price of Bitcoin grew but not with equal momentum. On days when US tech stocks were down, cryptocurrencies saw significantly deeper declines. Have the correlations broken? “There have never been stable correlations,” explains Ferdinando Ametrano, CEO of CheckSig and professor of blockchain technology at the University of Milan: “Bitcoin is not a company with cash flows, gold is bought by central banks, cryptocurrencies are bought by managers with an appetite for risk.”
Not even the reduction in supply has had the same effects as in the past. Every four years the so-called halving process takes place, as a result of which the rate of creation of new Bitcoin is reduced by approximately 50%. In the 12 months following the first three halvings, from 2009 onwards, prices soared, rising from 8,500% after the first to around 290% after the second and 550% after the third. However, when the fourth halving took place in April 2024, there was no rally. “The halving is no longer the metronome,” explains Ametrano. "The pace is dictated by global liquidity. Bitcoin has lost around 50% since the October highs, it's true, but the decline is slow, without the panic of past cycles."
Analysts argue that a large part of the problem lies in the shift in investor preferences towards AI-related technology stocks. Cryptocurrencies have transformed from a counter-current investment into mainstream assets, losing part of their appeal. Bitcoin has seen the volatility of its price reduce to the point that it has even attracted the attention of institutions, pension funds and asset managers. Stocks linked to artificial intelligence, on the other hand, perform above average and dominate the debate, with valuations so high that many are now talking about a speculative bubble.
We invented cryptocurrencies
by Rosaria Amato 12 August 2026
