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BackIMF總裁：AI是世界經濟的希望也是隱憂
IMF總裁：AI是世界經濟的希望也是隱憂
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自由时报1 hour agoBusiness2 min readChinaView translation

IMF總裁：AI是世界經濟的希望也是隱憂

imf喬治艾娃kristalina georgieva

Quick Look

IMF總裁喬治艾娃在新加坡活動中指出，AI技術雖可提振全球經濟成長，但同時帶來債務、通膨與金融穩定風險，呼籲政策制定者停止拖延並做出痛苦選擇，警告AI益處可能集中導致全球不平等擴大。

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

IMF總裁喬治艾娃在新加坡活動中指出，AI技術正成為全球經濟關鍵驅動因素，但與能源成本飆升及創紀錄公共債務共同挑戰經濟成長。

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IMF總裁喬治艾娃（Kristalina Georgieva）。（歐新社）

〔財經頻道／綜合報導〕國際貨幣基金（IMF）總裁喬治艾娃（Kristalina Georgieva）表示，投資人和各國政府寄予厚望以提振全球經濟的AI技術，同時也為經濟成長帶來了威脅，呼籲政策制定者停止拖延在債務問題上做出痛苦的選擇。

《CNBC》報導，喬治艾娃週三（7日）在新加坡舉行的活動上表示，AI正在迅速成為世界經濟中各國相關命運的關鍵驅動因素。但AI進步、能源成本飆升和公共債務創紀錄這3重因素，正在挑戰經濟已「不盡人意」的成長。

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喬治艾娃直言，「無論你喜歡它、討厭它還是害怕它，AI都已經到來」。

IMF和世界銀行即將在下週召開一系列年會，喬治艾娃稱全球經濟同時受到兩個方向的拉扯，一個是在波斯灣持續長達8個月戰爭所帶來的「負面能源供應衝擊」，第二個則是AI投資熱潮帶來的「正面需求衝擊」。他表示，這兩者綜合起來的影響，在全球「極度不均衡」。

從正面的角度來看，全球AI投資佔GDP的比例將達到甚至超越過去鐵路、電網或電信網路建設的投資額。喬治艾娃指出，AI硬體及相關技術產品已佔全球商品貿易的10分之1以上。

IMF預估，如果AI運用得當，每年可為全球經濟成長貢獻高達0.5個百分點，經濟成長從3％提升到3.5％，相當於為世界經濟增加了一個「東協（ASEAN）規模的經濟體」。

但喬治艾娃隨後也提到，AI帶來的好處可能相當集中，這波熱潮很大程度上繞過了那些在全球AI供應鏈中參與程度較低的經濟體，進一步加劇全球經濟不平等擴大的風險。

AI熱潮也加劇了從美國、歐洲到亞洲的決策者一直擔憂的通膨問題。喬治艾娃表示，AI建設熱潮會引發通膨，除此之外，能源和食品衝擊、關稅以及國防支出也會。這種通膨壓力直接反映在債券市場，美國、德國和日本的債殖利率已飆升至數十年來最高水準。

喬治艾娃指出，AI熱潮本身也存在金融穩定風險，強勁的企業獲利正在推高股價和財富效應，但若是獲利不如預期，超大規模企業的槓桿作用，以及其持有的大量且不斷成長的美國股票，可能會將令人失望的情況演變成影響深遠的衝擊。

喬治艾娃引用了「阿瑪拉定律」（Amara's Law），這項定律認為，人們在短期內會高估一項新技術，在長期內會低估它。喬治艾娃說，在當今AI建設熱潮與未來AI帶來的益處之間的過渡時期，將經歷一段「風險最大的時期」，並補充稱，第一道防線是監管，現在或許是許多國家貨幣政策採取審慎鷹派立場的好時機。

一手掌握經濟脈動 點我訂閱自由財經Youtube頻道

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • 若AI運用得當，每年將為全球經濟成長貢獻高達0.5個百分點

    Possible · Within years

  • AI建設熱潮將引發通膨，債殖利率將維持高位

    Likely · Within months

Open Questions

  • 具體哪些國家將從AI投資中受益最多？
  • 監管應如何平衡創新與風險控制？
  • 發展中國家如何參與AI供應鏈以減少不平等？

Related Topics

imf
People喬治艾娃
Organizations國際貨幣基金世界銀行CNBC
Places新加坡波斯灣美國德國
Topics喬治艾娃kristalina georgievaai人工智慧全球經濟債務問題
This article was originally published by 自由时报.

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