Even in the Arctic Circle, the domestic political debate is not letting go of the Chancellor. His first trip abroad since the summer break - to the Arctic summit in Finland - falls into a very difficult week for Friedrich Merz. After the CDU's crushing election defeat in Saxony-Anhalt, he is under massive pressure within his own ranks. And next weekend there is a threat of further trouble in the state elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin.
At the summit, Merz described the threat to the Arctic as so important for European security that he traveled to Finland despite the debates in Berlin. He understands the domestic political debate, "but on the other hand, Germany is so closely linked to the fate of the European continent that we cannot separate foreign and security policy from what we discuss at home," he added.
Germany's international partners are also concerned about what happens next with the federal government. Merz is "absolutely" still a reliable partner, said Finland's Prime Minister Petteri Orpo when asked by a journalist. "He is the same chancellor as before." The Chancellor was also supported by Lithuania's President and Latvia's Prime Minister.
Is Merz threatened with the fall of Chancellor?
At least with regard to the debate about a possible exchange of chancellors, Union politicians in Berlin also support him. “Yes, I still believe in Friedrich Merz,” said deputy Union faction leader Mathias Middelberg. The debate about the Chancellor is "not only superfluous, but also not the decisive discussion," said the CDU politician on Deutschlandfunk.
Federal Minister for Family Affairs Karin Prien explained that they don't just replace a chancellor. The problems that the coalition has will not simply be solved with a change at the top, she added on the Caren Miosga program. “I think we would do well to all relax a little now,” said the CDU politician. "We have a responsibility to make this government successful together." It will be settled in the next elections.
A clear request that Merz “not run again” in a future federal election had previously come from Clara von Nathusius from the Junge Union (JU). In the ARD report from Berlin, the JU federal treasurer said that with Merz she saw no chance of an upswing in voter favor for the CDU. "We have a massive credibility problem. That's not just tied to Friedrich Merz, but also," said Nathusius. "And that's why I unfortunately believe that there are no more elections to be won with this Chancellor."
Support from Bavaria and Saxony
CSU leader Markus Söder had previously ruled out his party's overthrow of the chancellor: "Absolutely not from the CSU," Söder told the Bild newspaper. When asked whether Merz was still the right chancellor, Söder replied: "Yes, he supports the reforms."
At yesterday's CSU board meeting, the Bavarian Prime Minister also declared: "It would be a disaster if, after the traffic light failed, the next democratic government failed one after the other after a shorter period of time." Everyone in the coalition is now “forced to pull together and step up their game.”
The Prime Minister of Saxony and deputy CDU leader Michael Kretschmer also called on the federal government to implement substantial solutions to the problems in Germany. The Union will only be able to win the next federal election “with a reasonable democratic majority if it can be seen that things are changing for the better”. There needs to be more talk about content than about personal details.
CDU becomes the strongest force in Lower Saxony
The local elections in Lower Saxony provided a ray of hope for the CDU, from which the party emerged as the strongest force - despite major gains for the AfD.
However, the result is unlikely to mean much of a boost for the Chancellor. For example, CDU state leader Sebastian Lechner made it clear that the result was successful “despite this federal trend”. "I think there needs to be a political change in Berlin. We have to relieve the burden on people. Energy prices are too high, housing prices are too high. There is too little net of the gross," said Lechner. To achieve this, the federal government must make bold decisions by the end of the year.
Tensions within the coalition
Such calls for changes to the reform package, such as income tax reform, and measures against high energy prices are increasing within the Union's ranks. What is particularly problematic for the Chancellor is that the coalition partner SPD is also insisting on changes in the areas of pensions and health after and before the state elections. Tensions within black and red are growing.
The chairman of the influential middle class parliamentary group in the Union faction, Christian von Stetten, angered the coalition partner SPD at the weekend with an unusually sharp attack against the Social Democrats' leadership duo. Federal Labor Minister Bärbel Bas is “no longer sustainable” and Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil’s budget is “not capable of being approved”.
“Implement the reforms more quickly”
CSU regional group leader Alexander Hoffmann rejected these calls for Bas to resign today. "Our democracy is designed to function through coalitions - and we rightly chose the SPD," said Hoffmann in the Berlin Playbook Podcast. The most important lesson from the last few months is, above all, "that whenever we simply do our work, take care of the reforms, the survey results will then be more stable," said Hoffmann.
Middelberg, the deputy leader of the Union parliamentary group, said: "We need to implement the reforms more quickly so that the results are really visible and recognizable." The problem is that reforms are constantly being talked about internally.
Fateful elections for Merz?
However, the CDU cannot expect any positive effect for the state elections this weekend. Rather, the debates within the Union and with the coalition partner threaten to overshadow the final spurt of the election campaign. It is clear that a weak result - in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania the CDU is only a few percentage points above the five percent hurdle - would once again have an impact far beyond the state's borders - and could put the Chancellor's political future even more seriously in question.
In any case, the AfD, which according to surveys could also become the strongest force in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, is once again making a well-known demand. “In view of the desolate state of the coalition, in our view new elections would be the cleanest solution,” said AfD leader Alice Weidel at The Pioneer.
