Insa survey: Union falls below 20 percent for the first time in five years

After the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt, the Union fell below the 20 percent mark in the current Insa survey for the first time in almost five years.

If a new Bundestag were elected this Sunday, the CDU/CSU under Chancellor Friedrich Merz would only get 19.5 percent. She lost one percentage point compared to the last survey.

The AfD remains the strongest force. It remains unchanged at 29 percent. Due to the Union's loss, the party is now 9.5 percentage points ahead of the CDU/CSU. The AfD has never had a larger lead in this survey.

The SPD improved slightly by 0.5 points to 12.5 percent. Together, the current coalitions only have 32 percent. That would be clearly not enough for a chancellor majority. A majority would only be possible together with the Greens.

Because the Greens remain unchanged at 13.5 percent. The Left also maintains its value of 10.5 percent. The FDP again achieved 4.5 percent and thus remained below the five percent hurdle.

The BSW is reported at 4 percent in the current survey and adds 0.5 percentage points. The other parties remained unchanged at 6.5 percent.

The results at a glance:

AfD: 29 percent (+/-0)

CDU/CSU: 19.5 percent (-1 point)

Greens: 13.5 percent (+/-0)

SPD: 12.5 percent (+0.5 points)

Left: 10.5 percent (+/-0)

FDP: 4.5 percent (+/-0)

BSW: 4 percent (+0.5)

Other: 6.5 percent (+/-0)

According to Insa, a total of 2,010 people were interviewed for the current online survey from September 4th to 7th, 2026. The Union reached its all-time low at Insa in October 2021 at 18.5 percent.