In Israel's parliamentary system, voters do not directly determine the prime minister; The votes given to the parties shape the distribution of MPs, and the distribution of MPs shapes the government possibilities. For this reason, the political superiority of the election night and the capacity to form a government do not mean the same thing.
The political boundaries imposed by coalition partners can make alliances that seem mathematically possible practically impossible. The obstacle facing Netanyahu is not just the seven-seat deficit; Whether political partners can be found to bridge this gap.
The Constitutional Choice Before Herzog
President Isaac Herzog, who undertakes more representative duties in the normal period, assumes a critical position in the process of forming a government. After the final results, Herzog will listen to the recommendations of the party representatives and will assign the member of parliament who he deems to have the highest chance of receiving a vote of confidence from the Knesset to form the government. This name does not have to be the leader of the party that received the most votes. Although Kadima won more seats than Likud in 2009, then-President Shimon Peres gave the mandate to Netanyahu, an important example showing the political consequences of this mechanism.
The choice before Herzog is not just a matter of personal discretion; It has to be based on the parties' concrete declarations of support and the possibility of a formable coalition. On the one hand, there is Netanyahu's bloc, which is numerically ahead but cannot capture the majority, and on the other hand, there is the opposition that claims change but has not yet reached a compromise on the common government formula. The President's obligation to impartiality makes the appointment decision even more sensitive, especially in close power balances.
Arab Parties are at the Center of the Equation
The most striking political result of the election is that the Arab lists reached 17 seats in provisional calculations and placed themselves at the center of coalition negotiations. The center-right opposition option, which may be formed around former Chief of General Staff Gadi Eisenkot, may face serious difficulties in gaining a majority without the support of these parties. On the other hand, a common attitude has not been formed among the opposition components regarding the government partnership with the Arab parties. Netanyahu, on the other hand, practically excludes the option of Arab parties taking part in his coalition.
The Joint Arab List leader's call for a "real Jewish-Arab partnership" reveals that post-election negotiations will not be limited to seat sharing. Although the support of Arab parties has the weight to enable the formation of a government, it is unclear whether this support will turn into a cabinet partnership, a vote of confidence from outside, or cooperation on certain issues. Thus, the role of Arab representation, which has been tried to be excluded from political discussions for a long time, rises to a level that can determine the fate of the new government.
The Deeper Background of the Political Crisis
The coalition impasse is not independent of the political and social divisions that have deepened in Israel in recent years. Far-right partners in the Netanyahu government have faced intense criticism over settler violence, allegations of mistreatment of detainees, the Gaza war and tensions with allies. Herzog also warned about the hardening of society. On the other hand, Herzog's failure to respond to US President Donald Trump's call for the pardon of Netanyahu, whose corruption cases are ongoing, shows another dimension of the political pressure on the presidency. What is decisive now is not who comes first, but who can bring together 61 MPs in the same government formula; If this is not achieved, Israel will face a new political deadlock.
