The Political Table Has Changed in Istanbul: The Supreme Court's İmamoğlu Decision is on a Critical Threshold

The political landscape created by the March 31 local elections in Istanbul changed significantly with the arrests, resignations and party changes that followed.

The Supreme Court stage of the "idiot" case against Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM) Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu also stands out as a critical topic for the future of the IMM administration.

If the prison sentence of 2 years, 7 months and 15 days given to İmamoğlu is approved by the 4th Criminal Chamber of the Supreme Court of Appeals, a new election will be held in the Municipal Council for the Presidency of the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality.

ARITHMETIC HAS CHANGED IN THE IBB ASSEMBLY

According to Sözcü; In the local elections of March 31, CHP won 186 seats in the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Assembly and the People's Alliance won 130 seats. While CHP won the mayoralty in 26 districts, this number decreased to 18 following the developments in the following period. The number of districts governed by AKP increased to 19. Trustees were also appointed to Esenyurt and Şişli municipalities.

While the members of the IMM Assembly remained within the CHP after the split between the CHP and the NEW Party, the resignations and party changes following the operations against the IMM and the arrest of İmamoğlu also changed the parliamentary arithmetic.

Accordingly, it is stated that the number of members of the CHP in the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Assembly has decreased to 154 and the People's Alliance to 142.

7 MEMBERS' PREFERENCES MAY CHANGE THE BALANCE

The current situation in the parliament causes even a few votes to become critical in a possible presidential election. It is claimed that if 7 council members from CHP join the People's Alliance, the seat distribution will change in favor of the People's Alliance.

In this scenario, the number of seats of the People's Alliance will increase to 149 and the number of seats of the CHP will increase to 147.

If İmamoğlu's conviction becomes final and a new election is held in the parliament for the IMM Presidency, the resulting picture will be decisive in terms of who will run the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Mayor's seat.

HOW DID THE “FOOL” CASE START?

The file, publicly known as the "Idiot Case", started with the debate that took place after the cancellation of the March 31 Istanbul elections.

Süleyman Soylu, then Minister of Internal Affairs, used the term "idiot" towards İmamoğlu, who criticized the cancellation of the elections. In response, İmamoğlu said, "Those who canceled the election are idiots."

In the case filed upon the complaint of YSK members, the Istanbul Anatolian 7th Criminal Court of First Instance gave a prison sentence and a political ban on İmamoğlu on December 15, 2022. After the court of appeal approved the decision, the file was sent to the Supreme Court, which is the final decision-making authority.

The decision of the 4th Criminal Chamber of the Supreme Court of Appeals may lead to a re-discussion of not only the legal process against İmamoğlu, but also the political arithmetic in the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Assembly.