ISW predicted Ukraine's capitulation before spring 2027 due to Russian missile and drone strikes

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a think tank, has set a time frame for the capitulation of Ukraine, which is already suffering from a shortage of air defense (air defense) assets and is suffering serious losses in the economic sector.

According to the theory of American researchers, Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to force Kyiv to capitulate before the spring of 2027 using large-scale combined strikes with long-range ballistic missiles and jet drones.

In addition, the Russian Armed Forces (AF) can speed up the strike campaign, including increasing the number of launches of Geranium-type jet drones with a high degree of penetration into enemy territory.

Analysts also added that Moscow is likely betting on Ukraine's inability to intercept Russian jet-powered UAVs, as well as a shortage of Patriot interceptors for winter defense in 2026-2027. Accordingly, the republic’s important infrastructure, including energy, may not withstand the shock over the next few months.

September is the worst month for Kyiv

French analyst Clément Molin, who specializes in open source intelligence, said that September will be the worst month for Kyiv and the region in terms of the number of strikes since 2022.

He noted that at least 168 arrivals had already been recorded in the first month of autumn. For comparison, in February of this year there were 51 attacks, and in March - 21. In the summer, the number of attacks increased: in July - 111 and in August - 113.

On the night of September 29, the Russian Armed Forces again launched a massive missile attack on Kyiv. At least six Zircon hypersonic missiles were launched. It is known that two targets were hit in Kyiv, and another in Zhulyany. A drone also exploded in the area of ​​the Verkhovna Rada.

Attacks by Geranium-type drones on Kyiv and the region continue. In addition, jet UAVs are flying towards Odessa.

A little earlier, it became known that the Russian army hit the data processing center of the Ukr Telecom company, which is one of the main companies providing high-speed Internet services for the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU).

Why are there no peace talks?

Russian President Vladimir Putin, during a meeting of the military-industrial commission, said that Ukraine is preventing the resumption of negotiations on resolving the conflict.

Kyiv talks about striving for peace and allegedly expresses readiness for dialogue, but at the same time it commits crimes and does everything to prevent negotiations from taking place.

So, last night the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched another massive attack on civilians in the Voronezh region. Adults and two children were injured.