Kalshi is valued at US$40 billion and approaches a possible IPO

Kalshi, co-founded by Brazilian Luana Lopes Lara, 29, has just surpassed its rival Polymarket in the evaluation of investors.

The prediction markets company completed a new funding round that values ​​it at US$40 billion, said its co-founder and chief executive, Tarek Mansour, in an interview on Wednesday night (29). The value is almost double the valuation given to Polymarket in its most recent financing round.

Kalshi last week completed a $1 billion fundraising round, led by Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management, the company said.

Among the other investors who participated in the operation are Baillie Gifford, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, Coatue Management and Andreessen Horowitz. In the previous round, held in May, the company had been valued at US$22 billion.

The round, called Series G, is widely considered the last before an IPO (Initial Public Offering). Mansour, however, declined to comment on when — or even if — the IPO will take place. He limited himself to saying that "there were discussions" on the matter.

Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have turned into cultural phenomenons over the past two years.

The US$40 billion valuation consolidates Kalshi's position as one of the leading companies in the sector. In August, its main competitor, Polymarket, was finalizing a funding round led by Donald Trump Jr.'s venture capital firm 1789 Capital, which valued the company at US$21 billion. Trump is also a paid consultant for Kalshi.

Critics of prediction markets say they should be subject to existing gambling laws. More than a dozen American states have gone to court to defend that these platforms are subject to state legislation. Kalshi, in turn, maintains that it is under the jurisdiction of federal regulators, as it acts as a financial tool.

Mansour points to the history of legal disputes between the federal government and the States over the regulation of financial markets. As an example, he cites the decades-long debate surrounding grain futures contracts. Investors say that regulatory challenges are expected and are already incorporated into the company's valuation.