Even around two months after the signing of the framework agreement between Tehran and Washington, an end to the Iran war seems a long way off.
Instead of making progress on the issue of Iran's nuclear program as planned, US President Donald Trump provoked things in the evening by announcing a takeover of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran rejects the plans and openly questions the resumption of negotiations with the USA.
Meanwhile, the deadline by which the USA and Tehran wanted to conclude negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program expires this weekend. However, the ceasefire and other points of the agreement had been repeatedly violated in recent weeks.
Pakistani security circles recently said that the ceasefire should be extended - for another 60 or even 90 days. So far, it has not been decided whether this new ceasefire will be communicated publicly. Pakistan is a mediator in the conflict.
Trump had previously added fuel to the fire and announced that he would designate the Strait of Hormuz as US territory. "Once we defeat Iran - which is currently suffering a crushing defeat - I will declare the Strait of Hormuz the territory of the United States," he said at a campaign appearance. However, according to the Wall Street Journal, a White House representative later said that Trump had been joking.
The strait is one of the most important trade routes for oil and gas and is also a central point of contention between Washington and Tehran.
Iran reacted to Trump's apparently not entirely serious statement: "The Strait of Hormuz cannot be taken by tweet, with an aircraft carrier, or with an order or a campaign speech," wrote Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kasem Gharibabadi on the X platform. Iran neither fears threats nor allows itself to be intimidated by demonstrations of power.
Gharibabadi further wrote that the US must accept that it has suffered a strategic and serious defeat. "The Strait of Hormuz belonged to Iran, belongs to Iran and will belong to Iran."
In addition, the period in which Iran commits to toll-free passage through the Strait of Hormuz ends. How shipping in the strategically important strait should be regulated is the subject of negotiations between Iran and Oman. Although Oman reported constructive talks, no agreement has yet been announced. However, according to information from Pakistani security circles, this is imminent.
Iran stressed that these negotiations are technical talks aimed at determining shipping routes through the strait. They should be seen separately from possible ceasefire negotiations with the USA.
The Iran war, which has been ongoing since the end of February, has brought shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, which is important for global trade, to a virtual standstill. The warring parties have been struggling for a long time to completely reopen the effectively blocked strait - so far without success.
An attack on a merchant ship in the strait was also reported on Saturday night: the state-run Emirati news agency WAM reported on X that a ship belonging to the state-owned Emirati oil company Adnoc had been attacked. No one was injured in the incident.
There was initially no information about possible damage to the ship. The Emirates had already announced on Friday night that two Adnoc ships had been attacked by Iran and strongly condemned the incident.
Iran had recently demanded an opening of the strait in addition to an end to all US threats against the country, a lifting of the naval blockade of Iranian ports as well as a withdrawal of US forces from the region and full compensation for the war damage.
Despite the expiry of the 60-day ceasefire with the USA, Iran says it has not yet decided whether to start new negotiations with Washington. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said, according to the pro-government Isna news agency, that the US had violated the agreement and that fighting had resumed. This means that, contrary to what was agreed, there was no ceasefire, which now has to be extended.
Meanwhile, the tensions between the USA and Iran continue to be felt on the energy markets: the important North Sea Brent variety went out of trading on Friday with further surcharges and most recently cost just under $89 - around $20 more than six months ago.
Donald Trump no longer has good options against the Iranian regime. It's just a matter of limiting the damage - and sending a signal to Vladimir Putin.
