Climate: According to analysis, China's CO2 emissions have fallen significantly

China emitted significantly less CO2 in the third quarter of this year, shows an independent analysis shortly before the world climate conference. What are the reasons for the decline?

A coal-fired power plant in the western Chinese province of Gansu: The People's Republic is one of the world's largest emitters of greenhouse gases. Photo: Johannes Neudecker/dpa

Beijing. China's emissions of climate-damaging carbon dioxide fell significantly in the third quarter of this year, according to an analysis. Compared to the previous year, the decline in CO2 emissions was an estimated 3.1 percent, the highest since 2022, as the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (Crea) wrote in the online specialist portal Carbon Brief. So far this year the decline is estimated to be 0.5 percent.

Crea chief analyst Lauri Myllyvirta said he evaluated official and commercial data. He cited a decline in coal-fired power generation of 3.3 percent and slower growth in the coal chemical industry as reasons for the development.

He also pointed to a significant decline in oil consumption in transport, which is also due to the pressure on oil demand caused by the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz and an increasing proportion of electric vehicles in transport. In addition, emissions in the climate-damaging cement and steel industries fell. The background could be the crisis in China's construction sector.

CO2 emissions plateau

China's energy authority also reported declines in coal-fired power generation in the third quarter and thus lower consumption of the raw material. In the first half of the year, the share of electricity generation from coal fell below 50 percent for the first time, it said in a statement.

According to Myllyvirta, this continues the trend that has been emerging since March 2024 that China's CO2 emissions are stagnating or even falling. China continues to rely on coal and is building new capacities. But the decline in coal-fired power generation indicates, according to the analysis, that power plants will operate on average shorter times.

China is producing more green electricity

At the end of October, China's energy authority also spoke of increasing electricity generation from renewable energies. This year, according to Myllyvirta, the growth in renewable energy generated could exceed the growth in overall energy demand, resulting in a structural decline in the use of fossil fuels. It is also important to remove hurdles for connecting wind and solar farms to the power grid so that less green electricity is lost, it said.

Global CO2 emissions will be the topic of the COP31 world climate conference in Antalya, Turkey, in just under a week. China is the largest emitter of greenhouse gases. When it comes to climate issues, the world's second largest economy is one of the developing and emerging countries and sees the industrialized nations as responsible for climate financing. Beijing announced in advance that it wanted to discuss “old problems” such as the inadequate emissions reduction efforts of industrialized countries and the lack of financial support.