Climate crisis: Copernicus: 2026 will almost certainly break the 1.5 degree mark

Bonn. According to the EU climate change service Copernicus, the year 2026 will almost certainly break the mark of 1.5 degrees of global warming compared to pre-industrial times. This would be the second time after 2024, as the service announced - the target is only considered officially achieved on a multi-year average. The global community actually wanted to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees in order to avert the most catastrophic consequences of the climate crisis.

Last month was reportedly the warmest October on record worldwide - with an average global surface temperature for the month that was 1.75 degrees above pre-industrial times. It was the third month in a row that was above the 1.5 degree limit.

“An exceptionally strong El Niño is further heating up a climate already warmed by human activity, while 2026 is on track to become the second calendar year in which warming exceeds 1.5 degrees,” said Samantha Burgess of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. “Particularly significant is that the four-year average is also expected to exceed 1.5 degrees, highlighting how persistent this period of global warming has become.”

The United Nations now officially assumes that the 1.5 degree target set out in the Paris Climate Agreement will be breached - this is called "overshoot". However, because this threatens drastic climate extremes and dangerous tipping points, the exceedance should be kept as short and low as possible.

Risks and impacts are increasing with every fraction of a degree and with every year, according to a September report from the UN environmental program UNEP.

Climate researcher Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, also calls for the “overshoot” above the 1.5 degree mark to be kept as small and short as possible and for the temperature to be quickly reduced again by removing CO2 from the atmosphere. Rockström explains that it is now unavoidable that global warming will officially exceed 1.5 degrees compared to pre-industrial times in the next five years. We are currently “on a path to an uncontrollable future,” he said in a briefing.