EU service Copernicus: The 1.5 degree mark will probably be exceeded in 2026

According to the EU climate service Copernicus, the year 2026 will almost certainly break the mark of 1.5 degrees of global warming compared to pre-industrial times. This would be the second time after 2024, as the service announced - the target is only considered officially achieved on a multi-year average.

The global community actually wanted to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius in order to avert the most catastrophic consequences of the climate crisis. This was decided at the climate conference in Paris in 2015.

Copernicus estimates that 2026 will most likely be the second warmest year on record. With a 20 percent probability, the year could even exceed the record value of 2024. The climate service experts also expect the four-year average for the period 2023 to 2026 to be over 1.5 degrees.

According to information, last month was the warmest October worldwide since records began. According to Copernicus, the average global surface temperature was 15.35 degrees - 1.75 degrees higher than pre-industrial times for the month. It was the third month in a row that was above the 1.5 degree limit. It was the second warmest October in Europe, after October 2022. Last month saw particularly high temperatures, especially in the east and northeast of the continent.

Copernicus also reported highs for the sea temperature in October: According to this, the temperature on the water surface between the two 60th parallels was 20.95 degrees, exceeding the previous high of October 2023.

In the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, which is particularly affected by the El Niño climate phenomenon, the deviation rose to 3.21 degrees - a historic high. This was far above the temperature during previous strong El Niño events, for example in 2015/2016 and 1997/1998.

The warming of the seas is a major contributor to coral death. This affects numerous other species that live in and with corals.

"An exceptionally strong El Niño further heats up a climate that has already been warmed by human activity," said Samantha Burgess of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. "Particularly significant is that the four-year average is also expected to exceed 1.5 degrees, highlighting how persistent this phase of global warming has become."

The United Nations now officially assumes that the desired 1.5 degree target will be exceeded - this is called "overshoot". However, because this threatens drastic climate extremes and dangerous tipping points, the exceedance should be kept as short and low as possible.

Risks and impacts are increasing with every fraction of a degree and with every year, according to a September report from the UN environmental program UNEP.