Rarely has a prime minister in the dock, appeared as stubborn on election night as Ulf Kristersson (M) on Sunday. And it wasn't about any hopes that Wednesday's early and overseas votes will shift a couple of mandates, but about him having a new – non-socialist – majority in his back pocket if his previous one was rejected by the voters.
In other words: the Center Party will enter the Tidölaget.
And of course you can understand that Kristersson was on the rise. The moderates have moved forward, the Sweden Democrats backwards. He once again leads the largest party on the right.
But from there to the fact that the M leader could continue to govern after losing the election is a huge leap of thought.
Kristersson's argument for this is all locking within the opposition: Left parties demand ministerial positions. The Center Party says no to V in the government. Magdalena Andersson has made it clear that she only intends to take office if she can also get her budget through, which possibly rules out any variant where other parties print yellow in a prime ministerial vote without a broader settlement.
Just like V, SD has stated that the party does not intend to support a government it is not in. C is at least as fierce an opponent of ministers from SD as from V.
Voilà! Thus, Ulf Kristersson is the obvious solution.
Really?
Just as Ebba Busch (KD) was careful to underline in her speech on election night, there was only one pronounced government alternative in Sunday's election: Ulf Kristerssons. It had a majority. The voters did not give it a new one.
Above all: red lines on the left do not blur those on the right.
Just like V, SD has stated that the party does not intend to support a government it is not in. C is at least as fierce an opponent of ministers from SD as from V.
And just like Magdalena Andersson, Ulf Kristersson has been careful to point out that a prime minister must be able to get his budget through.
There is no solution where he is released by SD and C without a broader agreement and then is guaranteed to get his economic policy through.
Furthermore, the Centre's reluctance to cooperate with SD is not about artificial and arbitrarily drawn red lines, as moderates like to make it sound like.
Nor is it just about liberal values or a resistance to letting in a party around which new Russian connections are constantly being discovered in Rosenbad. Although such things obviously matter.
In terms of economic policy, C is market liberal. SD certainly likes tax cuts, but also subsidies as long as they don't go to immigrants.
It is also about deep political differences.
Ulf Kristersson was not satisfied with promising Jimmie Åkesson ministerial positions, but also control over migration and integration policy. Permanent residence permits must be revoked. Zero kroner must be spent on opening doors for immigrants into the labor market and into the community. On the contrary, the center wants to soften the legislation for both labor and asylum immigration. And the party likes to invest in integration.
In terms of economic policy, C is market liberal. SD certainly likes tax cuts, but also subsidies as long as they don't go to immigrants.
Of course, the center will not lay flat. And if Kristersson believes that the Sweden Democrats do, like this four years after the mangling at Tidö castle, he is more than legitimately high on M's 19.9 percent.
"Better right than fast," said the Moderate leader about the formation of the government on election night. It must be so. But that is not an argument for continuing to dream that the Center Party and the Sweden Democrats will jointly save his job as prime minister.
It will never happen.
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