Büşra Zeynep Özdemir, a researcher from the Foundation for Politics, Economics and Social Research (SETA), wrote about the effects of the global contraction in diesel supply on energy security and climate policies for AA Analysis.
Diesel, known as the "workers' fuel" of the global economy, has placed itself at the center of the energy crisis in the autumn of 2026. The price of a gallon of diesel in the USA reached a historical peak with an average of 6.5 dollars at the end of September. A state of emergency was declared in the states as diesel, which was around $3.7 a year ago, ran out of fuel at many stations. Many stations in France were unable to provide fuel on September 21. From the Philippines to Ethiopia to Slovenia, governments have resorted to emergency measures such as sales caps and shortened working days.
This picture is not the result of a single shock, but of two overlapping supply disruptions: The supply shortage that started with the Russia-Ukraine War in 2022 reached a historical dimension with the war that started with the US/Israeli attacks on Iran on February 28, 2026, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The International Energy Agency (IEA) described the situation as the biggest supply problem in the history of the oil market.
At this point, the critical question before COP31, which will be held in Antalya on 9-20 November, hosted by Türkiye, is: is supply security pushing climate targets into the background? In the short term, the answer is "yes." However, when examined structurally, it appears that the crisis is redefining the climate agenda rather than shelving it.
Double refraction from Russia to Hormuz
Ukraine's unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have hit Russian refineries on average every three days this year. As a result, Russia's diesel production decreased by 30 percent. The Kremlin, which exports half of the diesel it produces, imposed an export ban on manufacturers for the first time in its history in July and extended the ban until the end of October. In June, there was a fuel shortage in approximately 90 percent of Russia's territory. According to the IEA, diesel exports from the Middle East and Russia decreased by 75 percent on an annual basis in August. Global oil stocks have also decreased by 507 million barrels since the beginning of the war.
Uncertainty continues in Hormuz. Traffic in the Bosphorus, through which one fifth of global oil trade passes, did not return to normal despite the April 8 ceasefire. The ceasefire was broken in July, and Middle East tankers were attacked again in August. Iran's statement in September that it could open the strait within a week provided only short-term relief. The IEA warned that normalization of flows could be delayed until next year due to the deadlock in US-Iran negotiations.
Saudi blow to Europe
For Europe, the final blow came from Saudi Arabia. The East-West Pipeline, which bypasses Hormuz and carries approximately 4 million barrels per day to the Yanbu Port in the Red Sea, was closed after UAV attacks targeting pump stations on September 11. Yanbu loadings stopped, and cargoes of some European refineries were canceled or postponed. Some were also informed that there would be no Saudi oil arrival in October. Many companies had to make additional purchases to fill the gap.
The line was opened on September 22, and it is stated that the line, which started operating again with low capacity, may take at least 6-8 weeks to return to full capacity. These barrels are difficult and expensive to replace because European refineries are configured for medium-heavy Saudi crude. For the European Union (EU), which meets 18 percent of its diesel imports from the Middle East, this indicates a serious vulnerability before winter. Moreover, it is thought that the US ban on diesel exports could increase diesel prices in Europe by more than 50 percent.
Urgent measures: Environmental standards are being relaxed
The common denominator of governments' responses to the crisis is their plans to relax environmental standards: In the US, Texas, Louisiana, Missouri and Alabama have allowed the use of tax-free, red-dyed diesel on the roads, which is reserved for agricultural machinery. Texas also requested eliminating the low-sulfur diesel mandate.
In Europe, French President Emmanuel Macron, in his letter to the European Commission, demanded the relaxation of fuel quality rules such as density and desulfurization, arguing that this could increase refinery output by 5-20 percent. The letter also suggested postponing methane gas regulation.
There is another side of the table, biofuels. Macron proposed increasing the rate of biodiesel from 7 percent to 10 percent, while the United States allowed gasoline containing 15 percent ethanol nationwide throughout the summer. The crisis makes every domestic molecule that can replace imported fossil fuels valuable.
Is the climate agenda in the background?
The short-term picture is not encouraging. According to the IEA, investment in coal supply has reached its peak since 2012 with $180 billion this year. While countries such as India, Bangladesh and Pakistan turned to coal, South Korea and Japan increased their electricity production from coal. Some countries, including Italy and Germany, are also considering reviewing their coal phase-out schedule.
On the other hand, the direction of capital flow indicates a different situation. It is stated that in 2026, 2.2 trillion dollars of global energy investments will be transferred to clean energy, smart grids and efficiency technologies, and 1.2 trillion dollars will be transferred to fossil fuels. Oil supply investment declines for the third year in a row despite higher prices. Approximately 80 percent of new power plants that come into operation in 2026 are based on renewable energy sources. This is the lesson of the diesel crisis; if heavy transport and agriculture are not transformed in a planned way, the transformation will be forced under the pressure of price shocks and geopolitical crises.
COP31 and Türkiye: Bringing energy security and climate together
In this crisis environment, Türkiye is both an energy importer and a COP31 host country. Türkiye, which has been meeting a significant portion of its diesel imports for a long time, 85 percent of which will come from Russia in 2025, quickly diversified its supply by purchasing from India and the USA in August, following the Kremlin's export ban. The Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources predicts that imports can be greatly reduced if electric vehicles replace even half of the 5.5 million diesel-fueled cars on the highways.
The "35 by 35" commitment announced by the COP31 Presidency in September aims to increase the share of electricity in global final energy consumption to 35 percent by 2035. According to the IEA, achieving this target could result in a $400 billion reduction in the annual energy bill of importing countries. COP31 is a critical opportunity to define climate and energy security as complementary rather than competing goals. Antalya's success will be possible by bringing these two agendas together at the same table.
