Polarization and the great political battle leading up to the general elections also play their cards in the Ceuta crisis and complicate the solution.
The Government's decision this Saturday, for the first time in a month, to take legal control of the situation and displace the city, which was boycotting a key location for more than 1,000 immigrants in the port, brings to the fore an issue that has been on the table since day one, but has not been the focus of the political debate: the hitherto muted clash between the two administrations, which have been playing cat and mouse for a month with the only way out of the hole in which The city has collapsed since the entry of 72,000 immigrants in the biggest leap in history: enabling spaces to house all those who stayed and thus begin to affiliate them and begin the process to return them to Morocco.
Óscar Puente, the Minister of Transportation, has signed the first order that directly takes away decision-making power from the city, which until now has exercised the right of veto in any space and, according to several ministers, has made all those responsible dizzy. Puente is clear that this was the only way out and believes that this resistance from the city government, led by the popular Juan Jesús Vivas, who in the 2021 crisis was very collaborative with the Executive and applauded its work and now criticizes it every day and speaks of "abandonment", is essential to explain the difficulties added to an already very complicated management. Late on Saturday, the Vivas Administration described the port's intervention as a “serious error,” arguing that “it is a critical infrastructure.” However, Vivas himself accepted the port last week and approved it in the sole command and the National Security Council in which he participated.
"We cannot spend another month discussing from the sports centers to the port, from the port to the sports centers. What happened yesterday [on Friday, when the board of directors of the port of Ceuta, dominated by people trusted by Vivas, voted against enabling a space that was agreed upon a week ago with the president of Ceuta] is an act of sabotage. If we want to resolve this, there is only one way: affiliate the people and proceed with the expulsion. And for that we need to keep them in mind. some space; in addition, citizens ask us not to be on the streets,” says the minister, who criticizes that the city asks for solutions, but boycotts them when they try to implement them.
Different members of the Government consulted see the hand of the PP, Vivas's party, behind this strategy of resistance because they believe that in this way it attempts to prolong the crisis and wear down the Executive. But in the city they deny it and appeal to pressure from neighbors, which is very strong and makes any movement difficult.
Kissy Chandiramani, vice president and advisor of the Treasury of Ceuta, believes that the problem is the desperation of the neighbors. "People do not want this to be installed near their house, they are protesting against it. We have to understand the neighbors; we are very pressured by the situation. People are overwhelmed. The street is full of people who are not from Ceuta. People do not want to have them near their homes. Ceuta has become a large CETI (temporary detention center). Anywhere they go affects people, parks, public spaces. Ceuta is very small," he explains.
Chandiramani insists that there is a lack of means to accelerate returns. "The unions say that last week there was one computer, now there are 6. The Government delegation says there are 14. There are thousands of people, people need a horizon."
In the Interior they assure that there are many more, and this Tuesday, when the minister will go to Ceuta, a specialized center will be inaugurated to process returns with capacity for almost 400 people. Setting it up in a month has been very complex, because a building had to be enabled and have all the permits and even make it fireproof, for example, because some immigrants will spend the night there and up to 72 hours.
The Government is very upset with this attitude of Vivas and his team, who in their vision are warming up the population with the idea that there is a lack of resources instead of doing as in the 2021 crisis, when they were grateful for all the help and provided the spaces themselves to quickly resolve the crisis and avoid social tension. Different executive sources privately criticize themselves and admit that the crisis was poorly managed at the beginning because when the mass of immigrants began to return - 90%, they estimate - they thought that almost all of them would return, and they waited too long to start looking for refuge for them, trusting that they would leave. The city itself pressured not to house them so they would leave. But later, they insist, when the reins were taken, the big problem has been the resistance of the neighbors and the city to accept the spaces.
The Government recalls that it has approved up to 309 million euros for the city while Vivas insists on "abandonment." “The 300 million are very good but it could be 300,000, and if we do not return to normal it is of no use,” concludes the Treasury Minister.
“This is what has happened to us from the beginning,” summarizes a minister. "We have had the city against us at all times, turning the people against us. But we have not said anything. Vivas has managed to be the hero of the city by blaming the Government, contrary to what he did in 2021. And with the support of Feijóo. Vivas is going for the absolute majority, and Feijóo wants to stretch this as long as he can. They do not even sign for us to send 500 minors to the peninsula, which would greatly alleviate the pressure they have themselves, who are responsible for the minors. It is very obvious what they are doing. But even so, this will be resolved, we have the power to impose decisions as we have done in the port and we will have to resolve the crisis," he says. The Government is very satisfied with the progress made this Saturday, because with the Puente order it has already been possible to begin enabling the port space and there is also another one being finalized. Between the two there are more than 2,000 places, and there are more on the way so that there is no one sleeping on the street.
An autonomous president of the PP, on the contrary, believes that the underlying problem is political, but due to Sánchez's lack of vision, who has lost, he explains, the sense of smell that he demonstrated so many times to detect social humor. "Sánchez believes that Spain does not exist, that it is a sum of nationalities. But Spain does exist. And it has been troubled by a crisis that strikes an affective, emotional chord. When you see so many Spanish flags in Bilbao, when you see those masses in Zaragoza, in Seville, in inland towns, socialist mayors who join in, something is happening. Sánchez thought "this is Ceuta and no one cares." But that is not the case. In the PP we are surprised by the success of the demonstrations. And he has also opted for Morocco, which generates a lot of antipathy. And on top of that, he did not return from vacation. He is very isolated, without anyone to tell him, president, you are wrong. We believe that this is the end of him," he says.
Antoni Gutiérrez Rubí, political consultant, who has advised dozens of candidates in Spain and Latin America, believes that this crisis is not just another one. "This touches the identity nerve, it plays with the idea of the Arab world's invasion of Spain again. The images are powerful. Many Spaniards have seen for the first time the physical weakness of the border. The vulnerability of the borders is the vulnerability of the Government," he explains. "Crises also need symbolic management. And that has been lacking. They have focused on management. There was also no single spokesperson. Furthermore, there is a climate of growing Spanish nationalism. The issue is Spain. And this crisis touches that nerve. The Government needs a discourse on that," he says.
Ana Salazar, president of ACOP (political communication association), sees the crisis from Andalusia, where the problems of Ceuta and Melilla are experienced very closely, and is surprised by the succession of errors by the Government that she has seen, although she does not consider that it has to be the final straw. "Sanchez's governments are used to emerging stronger from crises. They have been skating like this for a while. Sánchez also tends to move very well on the international stage, and this crisis has that leg. But everything has gone wrong. This time it is the PP, and not Vox, that has known how to take advantage of the Government's weakness. But let's not forget that there were many moments in which the Government seemed finished and we no longer even remember those crises. Sánchez needs to offer an exit horizon. Let's see what's left when the souffle,” he summarizes.
“Polarization adds an element of complexity to managing this crisis,” insists Gutiérrez-Rubí. “Sánchez has a very complicated final stretch if the question is Spain, there is an underlying current, but we still have to see how far it goes,” he concludes.
The president, who this week will declassify all kinds of reports in the Council of Ministers to demonstrate that, contrary to what the opposition says, no one saw such a big jump coming - yes, there were many warnings that swimming entries were growing a lot, but they were nowhere near reaching more than 70,000 in two days - has moved a little away from Morocco this week and is even now opening himself up to the possibility that they organized it. But he insists that he needs proof because if that were the case, a serious conflict with unforeseeable consequences would begin.
Puente believes that all the mobilizations these days are similar to those of other times and do not change any votes. He, like Sánchez's hard core, continues to think that the elections are not decided in the Ceuta crisis but in a clear dilemma: "there is time left for the elections. When the time comes, people will have to choose between a Government with good economic data, which has worked, with its problems, and the abyss of the PP-Vox. And I continue to believe that in the face of the abyss, people will take a step back."
