Spanish politics is going through a new phase of growing tension as a result of the Ceuta crisis due to the arrival of more than 70,000 migrants from Morocco to the autonomous Spanish city at the end of July. This event, which provoked harsh criticism from numerous European Union countries against the Government of Pedro Sánchez, mainly from Italy and Denmark, together with the numerous accumulated cases of corruption, has resulted in the PP once again requesting a change of course in the legislature. Specifically, the president of the Popular Party, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, has once again insisted on the possibility of presenting a motion of censure if the PNV and Junts supported it.
However, the parliamentary partners who supported the investiture of Pedro Sánchez, including the two center-right formations led by Aitor Esteban and Carles Puigdemont, resist taking that step that would break the balance that supports the PSOE and Sumar Government.
Specifically, Feijóo's proposal to present a motion of censure within 48 hours if PNV or Junts withdraw their support for the Executive has reopened the debate on the real viability of that initiative. The response of both parties has been clear: there will be no motion of censure, and there will not be one because the operation would require the support of Vox, a party with which the Basque and Catalan nationalists maintain a political and territorial distance that they consider unbridgeable.
The PNV rejects any operation in which Vox is involved
The PNV, although it has terminated the legislature after the prison sentence of former minister Ábalos, has also publicly reiterated that it will not support "any motion of censure that depends on Vox votes." Aitor Esteban has insisted that his party will not participate in a maneuver that involves aligning itself, even indirectly, with a party that, he says, questions Basque self-government and defends a deep recentralization of the State. Esteban added that the PNV seeks to avoid a super electoral Sunday in 2027, aware that a failed motion could destabilize the political calendar and open a scenario of institutional uncertainty.
Basque nationalists consider that eventual support for a motion of censure in the Congress of Deputies, with the support of the PP and also Vox, which would overthrow the Government of Pedro Sánchez, could have a significant electoral cost for the jeltzale formation in the Basque Country.
Currently, the PNV governs the Basque regional executive in coalition with the Socialist Party, in addition to the three provincial councils, the three most important city councils (Bilbao, San Sebastián and Vitoria), and dozens of medium and small town councils.
Bildu, Sánchez's partners and the rise in Euskadi
Bildu, which also supported Pedro Sánchez in the Congress of Deputies, is another key partner for the socialists in supporting the Government of Spain. The training led by Arnaldo Otegi has facilitated, for example, the approval of key laws (such as the Housing Law or the labor reform).
They have also sealed agreements of great relevance, such as the complete extension of the "social shield" measures (with the prohibition of vulnerable evictions or the maintenance of the electric social bonus). In exchange for its support for Sánchez, Bildu won the mayor of Pamplona after evicting the Unión del Pueblo Navarro (UPN) through a motion of censure supported by the Socialist Party. Furthermore, they have managed to break their historical institutional political isolation as well as, for example, traffic powers in Navarra: the Civil Guard lost them to the Navarrese Foral Police.
In the PNV they know that Bildu is on the rise in Euskadi, where there is almost a situation of technical tie in the polls between both formations and they fear that any possible support for the PP (and Vox) in Madrid could be used by the left-wing Basque independence formation to surpass them electorally. And, furthermore, it would open up the possibility that the Socialist Party could come to an understanding with the formation of Otegi, feeling 'betrayed' by the PNV. For all these reasons, the leader of Bildu warned the PNV that supporting a motion of censure or bringing forward the general elections would be "opening the door" to PP and Vox: "Few jokes."
Junts and Puigdemont, also far from Vox
At Junts, the position is just as forceful. The management stated that a motion promoted by the PP "has not even been raised" and that the party will not enter into any operation that requires adding Vox votes. For Carles Puigdemont's party, Santiago Abascal's party represents the denial of his political project: frontal opposition to the independence movement, rejection of plurinationality and defense of a territorial model incompatible with any agreement.
However, the Catalan nationalists, who also benefit from politically wearing down the socialists in both Madrid and Catalonia, do not completely close their support for a hypothetical motion of censure, as long as it is of an 'instrumental' nature, that is, to appoint a technical president who would simply call new elections, not to invest Feijóo as the PP wants.
Feijóo has tried to put pressure on both parties by appealing to the judicial situation in the socialist environment and the idea of an "attack of dignity", as well as seeking the support of the Basque and Catalan business class. He has insisted that Sánchez lives in a "cycle of corruption" and has called for his resignation and the calling of elections, ensuring that "this is the end of the escape." But neither PNV nor Junts are willing to become the lever of a motion that, to prosper, would need a majority that today seems impossible. The parliamentary arithmetic is clear: without Vox, the PP does not have the numbers; with Vox, the nationalists will not be there.
Sánchez, apparently calm
The President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, aware of these almost insurmountable difficulties for a possible motion of censure to succeed, has responded firmly in various interventions in the Congress of Deputies, despite also being aware of his extreme weakness in cases of corruption.
Sánchez assured that his partners "will not withdraw their support" and that there are only "two ways to finish the legislature", neither of which will occur. Sánchez maintains that parliamentary stability is guaranteed and that he does not contemplate bringing forward elections. Their strategy involves resisting media and political pressure and trusting that PNV and Junts will maintain their commitment as long as judicial red lines are not crossed.
Felipe González and Aznar demand elections from Sánchez
The voices of the former presidents of the Government have added more noise to the debate. The socialist Felipe González assured that, after the ruling in the Ábalos-Koldo-Aldama case, Sánchez "should have already called elections." The popular José María Aznar, for his part, also demanded the calling of early elections, but pointed out that he would not present a motion of censure because "it is not going to be won, period", a reflection that contrasts with Feijóo's strategy and that underlines the real difficulty of the operation.
A turbulent political board
The political board moves between crossed pressures. The PP seeks to wear down the Government and project the image of a president in a situation of extreme parliamentary weakness and supported by uncomfortable partners from both the left and the center-right.
Abascal (Vox), for his part, accuses Sánchez of feeling "unpunished" thanks to the support of his allies. Junts and PNV toughen the discourse, but maintain parliamentary stability. And the Government is trying to resist in a climate marked by judicial cases, internal tensions and obvious wear and tear.
