Bitcoin Falls After Options Expiry, US ETFs Show Signs of Recovery

Post-deadline hangover. Bitcoin (BTC) fell back to around $84,000 this Saturday morning, three days after crossing $85,000. On Friday, $15.6 billion of options expired on Deribit at the quarterly expiration, and covering sales by market makers erased the week's rebound.

The expiry of options got the better of the rebound

An option contract gives the right (not the obligation) to buy or sell an asset at a price set in advance. When tens of thousands of these contracts expire on the same day, the market makers who had covered them must adjust their positions en masse. This results in mechanical sales, unrelated to a judgment on the value of bitcoin. On Friday, they erased the breakthrough above $85,000 in a few hours.

Technically, nothing is broken. The 50-day moving average remains above the 200-day, a pattern that many analysts read as bullish on substance. They place the resistance to be reconquered at $85,300. Below, some evoke a risk of cascading liquidations rather than a simple backlash.

American bitcoin ETFs are getting their heads above water

U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs racked up six consecutive days of net inflows from September 17-24, returning to positive territory for the full year 2026 after falling to $5.8 billion in outflows on July 13. Nearly $4 billion has come back since Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's announcement in August. On Thursday, BlackRock's IBIT alone captured $162.6 million; and according to data released by Farside Investors, Friday added another $134.5 million, bringing the series to seven positive sessions in a row.

The total remains modest, with barely 800 million dollars in net collection over the year, far from the 35.2 billion collected in 2024.

A weekend under geopolitical surveillance

According to the Wall Street Journal, which cites official American sources, Donald Trump told his collaborators to expect to resume strikes in Iran after the mid-term elections in November, after having rejected a proposal for a seven-day ceasefire. These same sources specify, however, that the president remains reluctant to resume large-scale military operations, and that his position could further evolve depending on the result of the election. And bitcoin continues to react to geopolitical upheavals like any speculative asset.