The return of the old bond demon: bitcoin under pressure from American rates

The return of the old bond demon. Bitcoin (BTC) is trading this Sunday, September 27 around $84,000, down around 4% from its weekly high of $87,363, reached on Thursday. On Friday, the expiry of $15.6 billion in options had already broken the momentum that was taking the price to new heights. This time, it is a completely different player who weighs on the first cryptocurrency: the American bond market.

The 10-year rate returns to haunt risky assets

The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has risen above 5%, a level not seen since 2007. When this bond, considered risk-free, yields so much, it once again becomes a direct competitor to bitcoin in the arbitrage of large portfolios. Cash is flowing into sovereign debt, a move that has already weighed on stocks this week.

This surge in rates is due to a mix of persistent inflation, abundant debt supply and monetary policy expectations that are cooling markets. Bitcoin, still treated as a risky asset by institutions, bears the brunt of it before stocks.

Bitcoin despite everything maintains its bullish structure

The daily RSI is at 64, high without being in an overheating zone. The MACD remains positive. And the price is still camped above its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages, the very definition of an intact bullish configuration.

The $83,800-84,000 zone now serves as support. Below, the 20-day moving average near $81,400 provides an additional safety net. Above that, it will be necessary to cross $85,000 to $85,800 before hoping to retest the $90,000-$91,000 supply zone.

ETFs collect $2.4 billion in a week, the biggest collection in a year

While rates do the dirty work on one side, managers buy the decline on the other. US bitcoin ETFs raked in $2.4 billion in the week ended September 25, their highest weekly collection in nearly a year. The 2026 balance sheet thus returns to positive, at 934 million dollars. On July 13, it still showed 5.8 billion net outflows.

BlackRock's IBIT alone captures $1.2 billion, ahead of Fidelity's FBTC (701.7 million), ARK/21Shares' ARKB (294.7 million) and Morgan Stanley's MSBT (203.3 million). Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas links this reversal to the US Treasury's plan to increase its buybacks of long bonds, a mechanism which has already attracted $5.3 billion to these funds since its announcement. Ether ETFs are riding the same wave, with $689.9 million in collections after a negative week. The total outstanding amount of bitcoin ETFs now reaches $108.4 billion.

The Treasury seeks to calm its own long-term rates, and this policy ends up boosting the appetite for bitcoin.

A third quarter that will remain in the books

Take a step back and the picture changes completely. Bitcoin started July around $58,500. It is preparing to end the third quarter with a gain of around 43.5%, the second best Q3 in its history behind the 80.4% in 2017. The close falls on Wednesday September 30.

No major publication before the markets resume on Monday. The American employment report, expected Friday October 2, will be the first test for the 10-year. And therefore for a bitcoin stuck below 85,000 dollars.

Bitcoin ETFs took in $2.4 billion the same week the 10-year rose above 5%. Managers did not wait for rates to ease to redeem the decline.