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BackThe Houthis consolidate their power in Yemen with military autonomy and regional tensions
The Houthis consolidate their power in Yemen with military autonomy and regional tensions
Developing
El Mundo1 hour agoWorld2 min readSpainView original

The Houthis consolidate their power in Yemen with military autonomy and regional tensions

Quick Look

The Houthis, an Iran-backed militia, have intensified fighting against the Yemeni government, control northwest Yemen and much of the Red Sea coast, and have developed a local weapons production capacity that reduces their dependence on Iran, while facing accusations of repression and persecution of minorities and aid workers.

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

The Houthis emerged more than three decades ago as a fringe religious movement in Yemen and have transformed into a strong militia that controls the country's northwest, including the capital, and much of the Red Sea coast, where about 70% of the population live.

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Aside from the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the attacks against Iran, Gaza, Lebanon and the Gulf countries, clashes have been taking place for weeks between Yemeni soldiers and the Houthis, the militia backed by Tehran. Hundreds of soldiers have died in combat in the last month, in the face of an advance by the militia that is trying to take over territory that would allow it greater control over the Red Sea. The Houthis have embarked on the umpteenth escalation of tensions in the region, launching a challenge against Saudi Arabia - guarantor of the Yemeni Government - to consolidate their power in Yemen.

The armed group emerged in this fractured territory more than three decades ago, as a marginal religious movement that has transformed into a strong militia, capable of challenging international coalitions and disrupting global trade. The Houthis, formally known as Ansar Allah, are more than an appendage of Iran in the so-called Axis of Resistance: they operate for their own interests and in the military field, they are increasingly self-sufficient.

The group, named after its founder Hussein al-Huti, currently controls northwestern Yemen, including the capital, and much of the Red Sea coast. Around 70% of the country's population lives under their rule, where they exercise a strict de facto government in which the militants collect taxes and try to recover institutional normality after a decade of war that devastated the territory. Practitioners of Zaidism, a branch of Shiism, the Houthis have imposed a conspiratorial worldview and systematic repression on the population. They persecute religious minorities such as Baha'is and Christians, in addition to imposing harsh restrictions against women, such as forcing them to always travel with male guardians.

A Human Rights Watch report documents arbitrary arrests and torture of political opponents and increasing persecution of workers from international humanitarian organizations. Various investigations indicate that in recent years, the group has established soldier training camps, in which African migrants are indoctrinated to join the group's ranks. Within the movement itself there are several factions, with a harder line that aspires to take control of all of Yemen and continue the war to destabilize Saudi Arabia. A more moderate wing, although weakened, is more pragmatic in dealing with rival factions and is willing to reach out to political agreements.

What distinguishes the Houthis from other militias in the region is their military self-sufficiency. The group has developed a sophisticated local production network from parts obtained through smuggling, which allows it to manufacture much of its arsenal, including the dreaded fiber optic drones, a technology practically immune to jamming systems. The militia has created a supply and production chain that includes smugglers in Yemen and countries in the Horn of Africa, who have the capacity to produce and continue supplying the group, providing autonomy from its main supplier, Iran.

This feature has allowed the Houthis to maintain their arsenal, despite bombings against the group and international attempts to cut off Iranian supplies. "They have been able to recover capabilities that were damaged or destroyed, much faster than people anticipated," Peter Salisbury of Columbia University tells The Economist. The smuggling of weapons, but also drugs to maintain their arsenal, has diversified the Houthis' alliances, establishing links with other armed groups such as Al Shabab, the main affiliate of Al Qaeda in the Horn of Africa.

These understandings have generated debate among experts about whether the Houthis' relationship with Iran is more of a subordination or a strategic alliance. "The Houthis could not operate at this level without Iranian weapons, training and intelligence," writes Elisabeth Kendall, a Middle East specialist at the University of Cambridge. "But it is not clear that Iran has direct command and control over the group," he warns.

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • The Houthis will continue to expand their territorial control in Yemen and strengthen their local weapons production capacity.

    Likely · Within months

  • Tensions between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia will rise in the coming weeks due to Houthi attempts to consolidate power in Yemen and challenge the Yemeni government's guarantor.

    Likely · Within weeks

Open Questions

  • To what extent does Iran maintain direct command and control over the Houthis?
  • How sustainable is the Houthis' local weapons supply chain in the long term?
  • How will the alliance between Houthis and Al Shabab affect security in the Horn of Africa?

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This article was originally published by El Mundo.

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