
Research shows stability in the 2026 electoral scenario, with Lula leading the 1st round with 36% against 29% for the senator.
AI-generated summary
The Quaest survey reflects the voting intentions and rejection rates of pre-candidates for the Presidency of the Republic for the 2026 elections.
President Lula (PT) and senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) are numerically tied at 41% in a simulation of the second round of the presidential election, according to a Quaest survey released this Monday (7).
The margin of error is two percentage points, plus or minus, and the confidence level is 95%. The survey interviewed 2,004 people aged 16 or over across the country, from Thursday (3) to Sunday (6).
Blank or null votes total 13%. Undecided are 4%.
On September 2, Lula scored 42% in the second round, and Flávio, 41%. On August 14, the president and the senator also appeared technically tied with, respectively, 43% and 40% of voting intentions.
In the first round, Lula has 36% of voting intentions for the 2026 elections, and Flávio Bolsonaro, 29%, according to the Quaest survey.
The scenario is stable in relation to the previous round. Writer Augusto Cury (Avante) appears in third place and scores 8%. In the previous survey, it registered 10%, eight percentage points above the survey carried out in August.
Renan Santos (Missão) scores 3%, as does Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), former governor of Goiás. Romeu Zema (Novo), former governor of Minas Gerais, has 2%. Samara Martins (UP) has 1%. 10% are undecided, and 8% say they will vote blank, cancel or not vote.
The scenario is without the influencer Pablo Marçal (PRTB), who, despite being ineligible until 2032, obtained an injunction from the São Paulo Electoral Court to join the PRTB and registered his candidacy for the Presidency of the Republic.
The case will be judged by the TSE (Superior Electoral Court), but the request is seen as an attempt to disrupt the election and tends to be rejected, according to two court magistrates and interlocutors of two others. The court has already ruled that the businessman will not be able to access resources from the electoral fund, participate in debates and appear during election hours on radio and television networks.
In the scenario with Marçal, there is little variation: Flávio scores 29%, and the other candidates have the same percentage in the simulations without the influencer. The difference is among those who are undecided, who fall from 10% to 9% — a variation equivalent to the 1% recorded by Marçal.
Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO), Veterinarian Wilson Grassi (Democrat), Clariana Brandão (DC), Edmilson Costa (PCB) and Hertz Dias (PSTU) did not score. The research was registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under number BR-01720/2026.
Flávio Bolsonaro is the candidate with the greatest numerical rejection among the presidential candidates: 55% of voters say they know him and would not vote for him, the same percentage recorded on September 2nd. Lula appears with 53% rejection, also stable in relation to the previous survey.
Pablo Marçal has a 45% rejection rate, compared to 44% on September 2nd. Ronaldo Caiado scores 41%, and Romeu Zema, 39%; both had, respectively, 40% and 38% in the previous round.
Renan Santos has a 29% rejection rate, and Augusto Cury, 26%; they were, respectively, 28% and 25% on September 2nd.
Second round
The president wins the second round simulation with Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) by 41% to 38%. On September 2, the two scored, respectively, 42% and 37%.
In the simulation with Augusto Cury, Lula scores 39% and the writer, 35%. On September 2, the numbers were 40% and 34%.
Against Renan Santos, the president scores 42%, compared to 37% for the Missão candidate. On September 2, the numbers were 43% and 36%.
In the simulation with Zema, Lula scores 44% and the former governor of Minas Gerais, 33% — the same numbers recorded on September 2.
Lula's campaign is affected by Federal Police investigations against Fábio Luís Lula da Silva, one of the president's sons, on suspicion of influence peddling. Known in the public debate as Lulinha, Fábio is identified by the PF as an indirect beneficiary of the action of lobbyist Roberta Luchsinger, who tried to obtain benefits from the sale of medicines to the Ministry of Health.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
TSE will judge Pablo Marçal's candidacy request
Very likely · Within weeks

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