High bond yields, rising oil prices, new war concerns and increasing corporate debt have been the critically viewed risk factors on the international capital markets for weeks. The DAX cannot escape this. Shortly after trading began on Thursday, it lost one percent to 24,854 points.
After three days of gains in a row, the upward movement on the German stock market was stopped on Wednesday. The DAX fell by 1.35 percent to 25,104.36 points, the MDAX by 1.4 percent to 30,112.41 points.
The same risk factors as here also affected the US markets. The Dow Jones closed with a loss of 0.7 percent at 51,180 points, the S&P 500 of the 500 largest listed companies with a 0.2 percent discount at 7,801 points. The broader Nasdaq Composite also closed more easily - it was down 0.2 percent at 27,538.69 points.
The focus now turns to the new reporting season. The 500 largest listed companies in the US are expected to increase quarterly profits by an average of 25 percent. That is an extraordinary amount. According to analysts, it will gradually have to be proven whether the years of investments will produce returns. There isn't much room for mistakes.
Jochen Stanzl, chief market analyst at Consorsbank, almost sums up the situation and the mood. The reporting season "must once again prove whether the billions of dollars spent on AI are producing the expected returns. The valuations on the New York Stock Exchange will only be moderate if the already anticipated profit growth of 25 percent can be maintained for the full year. Any cracks in the façade of AI growth can quickly increase the risks of correction."
Today, the South Korean tech group Samsung reported that its operating profit recently increased ninefold. This meant that the company exceeded the 107 trillion won mark for the first time in its history, which is around 70 billion euros. Samsung achieved its fourth record quarter in a row because demand for AI chips is greater than supply. That drives up prices.
For Samsung's other product ranges besides chips, such as smartphones and consumer electronics, this means declining profit margins. The stock is falling on the stock market, taking the sector with it internationally - but it has also gained more than 140 percent since the beginning of the year.
The truck manufacturer Daimler Truck also had positive news: sales rose sharply in the third quarter - by 26 percent. North America contributed the most. with an increase of 51 percent. Europe grew by 13 percent.
The sugar manufacturer Südzucker earned more in the first half of the year, although sales stagnated. The operating profit rose from 189 to 303 million euros - sales remained almost at the previous year's level at 4.188 billion euros. The stock rises in early trading.
The raw material markets remain an obstacle and burdensome factor for companies and consumers alike: oil prices continue to rise above the $100 mark. The North Sea Brent variety cost a good $102 this morning. Nervousness on the market is increasing because the United States - according to US media reports - is planning new military strikes against Iran in the coming weeks. The US government wants to reduce fuel prices in the USA before the midterm elections in November and show progress in the Middle East war.
The supply of oil is becoming increasingly scarce again. More ships are sailing through the Strait of Hormuz, meaning more oil can be shipped via the waterway. But currently producers in the Gulf of Mexico are having to involuntarily reduce their production; A tropical storm is approaching, meaning that a good 500,000 barrels less oil per day can be produced until the weekend. That would be a quarter of regional production.
Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) is accelerating the release of oil reserves. Diesel should be brought onto the market as a priority because this fuel has become particularly scarce in some markets. The energy agency also signaled that it would release further reserves if necessary.
Despite high prices for oil and gas, the federal government is expected to present more optimistic economic forecasts today than before. Economists believe a forecast of 1.3 percent growth in gross domestic product is possible.
In the past few weeks, most economic research institutes had already predicted greater economic growth for Germany. Meanwhile, the Federal Statistical Office reported exports fell by 0.8 percent in August, while economists had expected an increase.
Carsten Brzeski, ING's chief economist for Germany and Austria, says: "Germany's weak point is evident in trade. While German exporters benefited in the second quarter from the greater impact on Asian competitors due to the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, the third quarter has so far proven to be a setback."
A new trend is establishing itself internationally: despite ever higher interest rates and rising returns on the bond market, large companies in particular are becoming increasingly indebted. The stock market is critical of the fact that companies such as the space company SpaceX or the software company Oracle want to incur billions in new debt. The problem: They are increasingly tapping into the bond markets, whose yields are already rising sharply.
"Building AI started with cash. Increasingly it's running on credit, and credit is completely changing the risk profile," said Nigel Green, boss of deVere Group. “Debts must be repaid on schedule, regardless of whether the income flows or not.”
