Food prices could rise again after months of calm - warning of calm before the storm

Since February, for eight months, food prices have generally not risen at all, and the VAT reduction in April has reassured consumers, notes Matpriskollen. In their latest report presented today, Monday, however, they warn that the price stop is about to crack and that it is a calm before the storm we are in.

- The first signs are now visible on the store shelves. The number of items that received a higher regular price doubled in September, from one in ten to one in five items. The price freeze against the suppliers is perhaps about to be released, says Ulf Mazur and mentions, among other things, a price increase of up to 25 percent on big sellers such as Pågens Lingongrova.

A closer look at the total number of ordinary prices of over 44,000 daily goods naturally shows several thousand price increases, but they are balanced by reductions on other goods. So far, the food chains have been able to resist the suppliers' price increases, with the help of the VAT reduction, but the assessment is that it will no longer last.

- On average, the shelf is calm, but it is the calm before the storm. Producers have not been able to meet the need for price increases and costs have not stopped rising. That twice as many goods received a higher price in September is a first sign that the autumn's negotiations are beginning to bear fruit, says Ulf Mazur.

Food price monitoring points out that the food industry's operating margin at the turn of the year has fallen to 0.5 percent, according to Statistics Sweden (the average for the second quarter 2022–2025 was 1.4 percent) - a development that is explained by, among other things, the 17.5 percent higher milk price from the dairy giant Arla to the farmers since March.

Added to this is a troubled world with 40 percent more expensive oil since the outbreak of the Iran war and a predicted extremely strong El Niño with globally increased energy prices and crop failures as a result.

- This cannot continue for very long. With a margin of half a percent, there is no buffer left for more expensive energy, fertilizer and packaging. Autumn's supplier negotiations will be the toughest for a long time, and September's doubling of the number of price increases could be the beginning, says Ulf Mazur.