Market raises Selic projection to 13.75% in 2026

The financial market raised its projection for the basic interest rate (Selic) at the end of 2026 from 13.5% to 13.75% per year, according to the Focus Bulletin released this Monday (9) by the Central Bank. With the review, analysts' expectations now coincide with the current rate level, of 13.75% per year.

The approximation between the projection for the end of the year and the Selic in force is common in the final months of the calendar. With just a few weeks left until the end of the year, market estimates tend to converge towards the current level of interest rates.

The revision of projections comes after the most recent decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) to maintain the Selic at 13.75% per year. In a statement released after last week's meeting, the Central Bank reported that inflation expectations remain above target and that the scenario requires caution in the conduct of monetary policy.

Inflation

The review took place in a scenario of inflation still above the upper limit of the continuous target. The estimate for the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) remained at 5.22% for 2026. For 2027, the projection rose from 4.76% to 4.90%, the fourth consecutive increase.

Defined by the National Monetary Council (CMN), the inflation target is 3% per year, with a tolerance range of 1.5 percentage points up or down. In practice, the IPCA can fluctuate between 1.5% and 4.5%.

The basic interest rate is the main instrument used by the Central Bank to control inflation. When Copom increases the Selic, credit becomes more expensive, which reduces consumption and investments. With lower demand, the tendency is for prices to slow down. On the other hand, higher interest rates make it difficult to expand economic activity.

GDP

Market projections also indicate lower growth in economic activity. The estimate for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - the sum of all final goods and services produced by a country - in 2026 fell from 1.76% to 1.75%. For 2027, the expectation fell from 1.20% to 1.15%.

The most recent IBGE data shows that GDP grew 0.5% in the second quarter of 2026 compared to the previous three months. In the four quarters up to June, the economy recorded expansion of 1.9%.

These numbers represent only part of the economy's performance in 2026, while Focus's estimates refer to the result expected by the market for the entire year.

Exchange

In the foreign exchange market, the Focus Bulletin's projection for the dollar at the end of 2026 went from R$5.34 to R$5.35. For 2027, the estimate remained at R$5.40.